WHO Poll
Q: 2021/22 What competition should we prioritise this season?
a. The league is our bread & butter, so this year let's have a club sandwich
27%
  
b. We're owed an FA Cup after Gerrard nicked our last one in 06, our name's on it in 22
10%
  
c. A bye to the League Cup 3rd round gives us a good start, let's make it count
6%
  
d. The Europa is our best ticket to the Champions League, this is the one
36%
  
e. What's wrong with you, let's do the lot, has the quadruple ever been done
21%
  



Irish Hammer 11:19 Mon Aug 30
Nice little piece on Antonio & expected xG

Michail Antonio living up to x(G)pectations

We have to start with the league’s top goalscorer.

West Ham United’s Michail Antonio has started the season in fine form, scoring four goals in their opening three games. Add his three assists to that tally and Antonio is only the third player in Premier League history to be directly involved in seven goals in a side’s opening three matches of a season, after Thierry Henry (2004-05) and Didier Drogba (2010-11). Not bad company to be in.

This hasn’t come as a huge surprise given that his underlying numbers have stacked up favourably for some time.

West Ham’s new No 9 — he used to wear No 30 — had the highest non-penalty expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes of any player with 900-plus minutes played in the Premier League last season at 0.62, meaning Antonio was getting chances worthy of nearly two goals every three games.



That shows us he was getting himself in good positions to score in high-quality areas. The slight discrepancy was that Antonio was not always converting those chances, scoring only 10 non-penalty goals last season.



Antonio admitted last week that he would have liked a higher tally last season, saying: “I’ve got to beat what I did last year. Last year I was disappointed with 10 goals, I was looking for 15.”

Judging by his overall xG of 13.6 for the 2020-21 season, you can see why he was disappointed.

Looking below, you can see how Antonio’s conversion of chances has been a little below expectation for a while. Indeed, last season only four players underperformed their expected goals more than he did from open play — Timo Werner, Jamie Vardy, Mbaye Diagne and Neal Maupay.



By contrast this season — albeit a small sample size — Antonio’s goalscoring has spiked in the other direction, with his four goals coming from a 2.1 xG. A short-term overperformance from the 31-year-old, but over the long term this is statistical variance at its finest.



Could this be Antonio’s most prolific season in a West Ham shirt? If things continue the way they are and he avoids the injuries that have been an issue in the past, you would suspect that will be the case.

Replies - Newest Posts First (Show In Chronological Order)

Mex Martillo 8:33 Tue Aug 31
Re: Nice little piece on Antonio & expected xG
Antonio’s problem is he only plays about half the season. If he plays the entire season he will be closer to 20, but I suspect it ain’t going to happen.
Thanks Irish

Vexed 8:30 Tue Aug 31
Re: Nice little piece on Antonio & expected xG
Fortunes Hiding 8:24 Tue Aug 31

Our one and only striker has to start every week you say?

Sticking your neck out there aint ya?

Fortunes Hiding 8:24 Tue Aug 31
Re: Nice little piece on Antonio & expected xG
Along with fornals at the moment, he has to be starter every week

Vexed 8:23 Tue Aug 31
Re: Nice little piece on Antonio & expected xG
I think Michael Owen had similar issues with his hamstrings and had to change his game to adapt to the fact they were made of biscuits. If I remember he started running at full tilt less. Apparently in his early days he was either stood still or sprinting close to 100%. He had to change this to give himself a few more gears and not running his hardest all the time. Probably what Antonio needs to do to an extent.

Saying that Owen was ALWAYS fucking knackered even after this but it probably prolonged his career a few years.

chim chim cha boo 8:15 Tue Aug 31
Re: Nice little piece on Antonio & expected xG
Not bad for 'an out of control shopping trolly' eh?

Some of you cunts need to hang your heads in shame about how little you know an exceptional, maverick player when you see one.

Sven Roeder 10:35 Tue Aug 31
Re: Nice little piece on Antonio & expected xG
I believe Wolves (zero actual goals) are top of the X-G's league.

legrandefromage 10:29 Tue Aug 31
Re: Nice little piece on Antonio & expected xG
If only Expected Goals won matches

Sven Roeder 10:25 Tue Aug 31
Re: Nice little piece on Antonio & expected xG
You have to admire the work he has put into his game.
A couple of years ago could you imagine him making that run for the first goal and setting up Fornals like that?
Or getting that ball beyond the centre back and smashing it in the bottom corner with his left foot?

Obviously took the keeper by surprise with an early accurate shot.
And probably most fans who a couple of years ago would have expected the corner flag to ripple rather than the net.

angryprumphs 10:07 Tue Aug 31
Re: Nice little piece on Antonio & expected xG
If Antonio had played every game last season he would have easily got 15+ goals. Top player.

Rossal 9:24 Tue Aug 31
Re: Nice little piece on Antonio & expected xG
I see a thing last night where on one site he has the highest rating this season of everyone in Europe.

I guess if you are only going to go with one striker for your longest ever season then you might aswell make him the best in Europe :D

threesixty 9:12 Tue Aug 31
Re: Nice little piece on Antonio & expected xG
Isn’t his issue just that he over exerts himself when he doesn’t need to?
He doesn’t get the issue in training because you regulate yourself in training. But in a match he tends to go all out.

I don’t think he needs to do that to be effective. He is fast enough in 3rd gear, doesn’t need to be in 5th all the time.

gph 1:22 Tue Aug 31
Re: Nice little piece on Antonio & expected xG
I hope there is clever way to handle his problematic hamstrings, and we know what it is.

A few seasons ago, he was starting to look like a body-builder rather than a proper athlete. Thankfully, that's gone away.

Queens Fish Bar 11:31 Mon Aug 30
Re: Nice little piece on Antonio & expected xG
Hero status.





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