West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread

[muskie]

Odds slashed from 5/1 to 7/2.

Watch this space.

I think we're fucked.

[honky cat]

They were talking about the run in on the 6pm thing on sky last night  They worked out the average league position of the opponents. Ours is 8th, I think forest was 9th/10th, Spurs 11th. So we are certainly favourites to go down with the hardest games. The player pundit however, still thought we'd stay up. Because it's us, and we can pull a shock when needed.

I fancy us to get something Saturday.

[Massive Attack]

Opta had us at around 70% likely to be relegated. Forest was 23% and Spurs 4% rest of the possibilities less than 1%. 

changing by the week though after Christmas our probability was above 80!

Righto, computer says no. The cunts are only 4 points ahead of us with 33 remaining.

[dealcanvey]

Opta had us at around 70% likely to be relegated. Forest was 23% and Spurs 4% rest of the possibilities less than 1%. 

changing by the week though after Christmas our probability was above 80!

[fraser]

How the final EPL table would look if based upon 2026 results only. Ave PPG in brackets.

12. Palace (1.33) 50
13. Brighton (1.13) 46
14. S'land (0.8) 45
15. Leeds (1.22) 44
16. West Ham (1.38) 40
17. Forest (1.13) 39
18. Spurs (0.44) 34
19. Burnley (0.88) 29
20. Wolves (0.77) 18


Interestingly we have the highest points per game for the bottom 9 teams since the turn of the year yet according to some we don't have the bollocks to reap as many points as our relegation rivals 

[fraser]

Bookies have us just under evens so almost 50/50 Forest just under 3s, Spurs 6s

[Manuel]

The Brighton's and the Palace's only need a couple of more wins, so let's keep it real. Leeds rarely lose football matches and Spurs are likely to turn a corner at some point, and as said have very winnable home games ahead.

It's between us and Forest for me, with us favourites to go down. We need a favour from the Seagulls at the weekend.

[easthammer]

Spurs .. will be safe on 46  






 

Not a chance they come close to that. Maybe survive sure but not by that amount of points.

Look at their fixtures mate. They have an easy run-in 

Spurs						0
Fulham	away	3	1	0		1.166666667
Palace	home	3	3	1		2.666666667
Liverpool	away	1	0	0		0.166666667
Notts Forest	home	3	1	1		1.333333333
Sunderland	away	1	1	0		0.833333333
Brighton	home	3	3	0		2.5
Wolves	away	3	3	1		2.666666667
Aston Villa	away	1	0	0		0.166666667
Leeds	home	3	3	0		2.5
Chelsea	away	1	0	0		0.166666667
Everton	home	3	3	1		2.666666667
		25	18	4		16.83333333		17	29	46

 

 

Above is from my workings
Column  1 Optimistic Points  Column 2 Likely Column 3 Pessimistic

[Massive Attack]

Fulham is a massive game for Spurs. Fulham at home and on form should beat them without too much trouble. 


 

It's a good thing they can count on their Leaders in to the Team then like their Captain Romer..oh.

[Mex Martillo]

Fulham is a massive game for Spurs. Fulham at home and on form should beat them without too much trouble. They need this new manager to show he can get them motivated and with the intensity, work rate and skill need to turn things round. Difficult to say what will happen.
But I would not be surprised if Spurs lose, no new manager bounce and then it's not difficult to imagine them getting dragged deeper and deeper towards relegation. Have to say I would love to see that.

[onsideman]

I have today brought out the spreadsheet for a bit of PERT-based analysis. Used normally to predict the expected time for events in projects, I have adapted the method for assessing the likelihood of points being achieved ( rather than timings). I won't bore you with the workings, but in previous years, it has been reasonably accurate.

Anyway, this is what it suggests ( and you won't be surprised that it is going to be tight)

I have assumed both Burnley and Wolves are gone 

West Ham and Forrest will finish on 41 points ( so goal difference will be crucial)
Spurs and Leeds will be safe on 46  and 45 points respectively

Brighton will struggle to 43 points but be okay

BUT Crystal Palace will only have 40 points.

Which means they will be down, although until I did this analysis, I was sure it was us.


 

Palace have the toughest run in, but it's fanciful to suggest they'll only get another 5 points. Had Wolves scored with their penalty yesterday and gone on to win it I might have found it more plausible 

[Massive Attack]

Spurs .. will be safe on 46  




 

Not a chance they come close to that. Maybe survive sure but not by that amount of points.

Look at their fixtures mate. They have an easy run-in 

Getting around half the points left available to them, I'd be very surprised they reach 46, regardless of opposition. 

[Mad Ferret]

Spurs .. will be safe on 46  



 

Not a chance they come close to that. Maybe survive sure but not by that amount of points.

Look at their fixtures mate. They have an easy run-in 

[Massive Attack]

Spurs .. will be safe on 46  


 

Not a chance they come close to that. Maybe survive sure but not by that amount of points.

[easthammer]

I have today brought out the spreadsheet for a bit of PERT-based analysis. Used normally to predict the expected time for events in projects, I have adapted the method for assessing the likelihood of points being achieved ( rather than timings). I won't bore you with the workings, but in previous years, it has been reasonably accurate.

Anyway, this is what it suggests ( and you won't be surprised that it is going to be tight)

I have assumed both Burnley and Wolves are gone 

West Ham and Forrest will finish on 41 points ( so goal difference will be crucial)
Spurs and Leeds will be safe on 46  and 45 points respectively

Brighton will struggle to 43 points but be okay

BUT Crystal Palace will only have 40 points.

Which means they will be down, although until I did this analysis, I was sure it was us.

 

[Mad Ferret]

I think our momentum is crucial.  We have to keep getting points but more importantly wins.  I resigned to our annual defeat at Liverpool, we have to beat Fulham.

I watched Liverpool yesterday and they were absolute dog shit. I think if we are at our best, we could get something up there.

I agree. Play like we did at Chelsea and we have a chance.

And we have a better defence now. Keeping more clean sheets.

[threesixty]

360.

Statistics can be misleading.

Here's a stat. They have lost 3 competitive games since August. They have stumbled recently but are 5 points clear at the top of the league,a hiccup doesn't signify 'very poor form'. 

 

 

7 games is not a hiccup. 
city will win if arsenal do not regain the form they had before Xmas. 
it’s very poor form in contrast to what they’ve been doing previously. if we take that form and project it for the remainder of the season and we take cities and project that, Arsenal do not win the title. 

just like if you take spurs form and project that against our form then we stay up and they go down. 

the interesting thing about our league is every team is capable of beating any team on their day. This makes the form thing more interesting because it’s less about the quality of teams you face each week and more about how well your team performs to their own abilities. 
I.e. any team if on the day if not completely 100% on their game, whether it’s city or Arsenal, they won’t get good results in the PL.
There are no “easy run of games” for any team from what I can see. 

[Dick Shaftsbury]

I think our momentum is crucial.  We have to keep getting points but more importantly wins.  I resigned to our annual defeat at Liverpool, we have to beat Fulham.

I watched Liverpool yesterday and they were absolute dog shit. I think if we are at our best, we could get something up there.

[Massive Attack]

Just means we've got to do it the hard way after making it a lot more difficult for ourselves than it needed to be and relying on those above us to keep tripping up. I prefer to remain hopeful tempered with realism. There is still a chance to stay up as long as we don't gift anymore chances away. Thank God for Spurs choking just when we needed them to so to also keep Forest honest and not just a 2 horse race to relegation.

[Tomshardware]

I think our momentum is crucial.  We have to keep getting points but more importantly wins.  I resigned to our annual defeat at Liverpool, we have to beat Fulham.

[Rossal]

I know they have been shit at home but Spurs remaining home games are pretty decent. 

We need some wins, and probably a minimum of 3 points from Liverpool and Fulham? 

[Massive Attack]

Fulham at home
Forest at home
Brighton away 
Chelsea away 
Man Utd at home

How many points dropped there, that's what we will look back on I think......not to mention being Wolves' only win 

Moreso the Wolves battering and Forest results.

[Westham67]

Spurs defence looks fragile their goal difference is worth a point on us now but the could change the way they played with Igor at the helm 

[Rossal]

Fulham at home
Forest at home
Brighton away 
Chelsea away 
Man Utd at home

How many points dropped there, that's what we will look back on I think......not to mention being Wolves' only win 

[twoleftfeet]

It was an ok weekend, we made up a point on Forest and Spurs. Just 2 behind Forest and 4 behind Spurs. Also maintained 6 points to Leeds.
But next weekend does not look good.
Liverpool v West Ham may be a point but looks like nothing
Brighton v Forest, Forest have better form, but Brighton are at home
Fulham v Spurs, Fulham have better form and are at home
Leeds V M City, should be 3 points for City

How different it could have looked if not for that 102nd minute goal during the 4 minutes of additional time vs Man Utd.

[Mex Martillo]

It was an ok weekend, we made up a point on Forest and Spurs. Just 2 behind Forest and 4 behind Spurs. Also maintained 6 points to Leeds.
But next weekend does not look good.
Liverpool v West Ham may be a point but looks like nothing
Brighton v Forest, Forest have better form, but Brighton are at home
Fulham v Spurs, Fulham have better form and are at home
Leeds V M City, should be 3 points for City