US Politics Thread

[stubbo-admin]

Seems like the main politics thread is becoming a Yankee-Doodle Trump-fest, so maybe scope here to split them out.

Will see if this one gains any traction ..if it does will move over a few of the million posts from our two protagonists from the other thread.

Yee-haaa!

[goose]

So why did the deficit on goods alone stand at a record high for 2025?

You’re not hurting China, they delivered a record trade surplus.

its a tax on American businesses and consumers.
The NY fed just proved that American businesses and consumers are paying 90% of the tariffs.

You’re all over the place looking for any negative you can find thinking you have a Eureka moment ffs.

Who cares about hurting China? The US economy is doing fine without China, we are no longer dependant upon China for a lot of goods that cause a National security threat, we have huge Capex investments pouring in, Tariff revenue filling the Treasury coffers, Inflation dropping which includes rents coming down, Trump RX reducing the extremely high costs of medications, tax cuts kicking in for retiree’s, tips and OT. And a jobs market that is set to take off once new factories and plants are operational. All forward looking indicators are looking good, yet you won’t listen.

It’s getting desperate for you, that is obvious.

It’s not ‘any negative’ is it? It’s the entire trade deficit for 2025.

the very point of tariffs according to Trump was to remove the deficit:
“A deficit is a loss… We’re going to have surpluses, or at worst break even…”

so that was absolute bollocks, as was the 78% reduction he kept claiming.

The revenue in those coffers is being paid by Americans, the ‘win’ you’re celebrating is a tax on American people.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ny-fed ... 026-02-12/

[Nutsin]

So why did the deficit on goods alone stand at a record high for 2025?

You’re not hurting China, they delivered a record trade surplus.

its a tax on American businesses and consumers.
The NY fed just proved that American businesses and consumers are paying 90% of the tariffs.

You’re all over the place looking for any negative you can find thinking you have a Eureka moment ffs.

Who cares about hurting China? The US economy is doing fine without China, we are no longer dependant upon China for a lot of goods that cause a National security threat, we have huge Capex investments pouring in, Tariff revenue filling the Treasury coffers, Inflation dropping which includes rents coming down, Trump RX reducing the extremely high costs of medications, tax cuts kicking in for retiree’s, tips and OT. And a jobs market that is set to take off once new factories and plants are operational. All forward looking indicators are looking good, yet you won’t listen.

It’s getting desperate for you, that is obvious.

[goose]

So why did the deficit on goods alone stand at a record high for 2025?

You’re not hurting China, they delivered a record trade surplus.

its a tax on American businesses and consumers.
The NY fed just proved that American businesses and consumers are paying 90% of the tariffs.

[Nutsin]

Still ignoring the trade deficit?

I think it's fair to say tariffs have been an abject failure.

I think it’s fair to say you are obviously brainwashed and constantly wrong.

[goose]

Still ignoring the trade deficit?

I think it's fair to say tariffs have been an abject failure.

[Nutsin]

More good news!

[Nutsin]

More good news.

[goose]

nothing like taking 1 weeks data as a 'win' is there?

4wk average still 220k.
continuing jobless claims 1.87m vs consensus of 1.86m


wanna mention the trade deficit?

[Nutsin]

More good news !

[Nutsin]

[Nutsin]

[Nutsin]

Inflation will be above 2% and their wages are growing 1%.
unless inflation is negative they will continue to struggle.

their debt interest is far higher than any growth in real income.

ok then.

[goose]

Inflation will be above 2% and their wages are growing 1%.
unless inflation is negative they will continue to struggle.

their debt interest is far higher than any growth in real income.

[Nutsin]

You should tell that to the bottom 70% of Americans who have reduced savings, higher debt and are struggling to live.

and saw real wage growth of 1%.

Alright keep looking backwards then....

[goose]

You should tell that to the bottom 70% of Americans who have reduced savings, higher debt and are struggling to live.

and saw real wage growth of 1%.

[Nutsin]

Another is the (COT) commitment of traders report it measures open interest in the futures market. Tells you where the big money is at. 

[Nutsin]

Another indicator is demand for MBS market, Demand is up suggesting lower rates for the US 10 yr.
Why does this matter, The 10 year is the proxy for the mortgage rates because the MBS market tracks the 10 year. The MBS market has higher risk than the bond market so has higher yields, so it is an indicator of risk on. People are now looking for yield not security. Meaning Investors see lower rates ahead in Bonds and growth in the economy.




 

[goose]

Don't forget Rent.....   The important stuff shows up in the headline, get it right.

I showed you the YoY growth for ‘shelter’
+3% YoY

And I showed you that the current reports show rents dropping and more importantly they are expected to continue to drop. As I keep trying to explain to a simpleton, it's all about what lies ahead. When are you gonna catch a clue?

 

 

So if the right now doesn’t count, then why did you post it?  When the data looks good you’re happy to post it, but when the data gets shared in detail it suddenly doesn’t matter because it doesn’t fit your narrative.

You either believe the data or you don’t.

[Nutsin]

Let me help you out a little because you obviously have no idea what data matters.

Here is a key component for market strategists. Check out the chart.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIFR

 

[Nutsin]

The drag is gas & used cars. Everything else, the real important day to day stuff I laid out for you.

Don't forget Rent.....   The important stuff shows up in the headline, get it right.

I showed you the YoY growth for ‘shelter’
+3% YoY

And I showed you that the current reports show rents dropping and more importantly they are expected to continue to drop. As I keep trying to explain to a simpleton, it's all about what lies ahead. When are you gonna catch a clue?

[goose]

Are these the numbers you are so excited about?

The drag is gas & used cars. Everything else, the real important day to day stuff I laid out for you.

Don't forget Rent.....   The important stuff shows up in the headline, get it right.

I showed you the YoY growth for ‘shelter’
+3% YoY

[Nutsin]

I prefer to listen to Steve Liesman, I find you have no credibility in such matters.

Hope that helps!   

Are these the numbers you are so excited about?

The drag is gas & used cars. Everything else, the real important day to day stuff I laid out for you.

Don't forget Rent.....   The important stuff shows up in the headline, get it right.

[goose]

you asked about the long game.
you do this every time you dont have an answer for stuff - just talk around in circles.

the inflation numbers are there for you to read, i gave you the detail.

I prefer to listen to Steve Liesman, I find you have no credibility in such matters.

Hope that helps!   

Are these the numbers you are so excited about?

The drag is gas & used cars. Everything else, the real important day to day stuff I laid out for you.

[Nutsin]

Don't forget to click on the "show more" link in the post below.

Some real good news in there.

And here's the cherry on top, Perhaps you and Millie vanilli can address this lil nugget?

[Nutsin]

Don't forget to click on the "show more" link in the post below.

Some real good news in there.