West Ham vs Nottingham Forest | PL | 6.1.26 | Predictions and Match Thread

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WHU: 11/5
Draw: 5/2
Wolves: 11/8

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The term 'must win' is often used in circumstances where it's not quite true.  Is Forest at home a must win game?  Maybe, maybe not.  But 100% it's a must not lose game.  A win puts us within touching distance of a Forest side in the aftermath of their own little managerial change honeymoon period.  A loss....and 17th place starts to look a very long way away indeed.

We go into this game with some comings and goings in the squad.  Luis Guilherme has departed for Sporting.  Callum Wilson is negotiating an exit (no doubt he sees the writing on the wall with two striker signings coming in, and the 6k basic he's on starting to look like all he'll be getting most weeks).  Pablo and Taty Castellano are now in and training with the squad, and both seemingly well known or attacking their duels and fighting hard....and my word do we need some of that.

There's been no news surrounding Todibo and Paqueta for this one.  Paqueta's being a back injury, it's feasible a spasm could have subsided with some intensive physio...but with Todibo's being a groin injury, that feels less likely to make a swift disappearance with the usual sources reporting he needed a scan, but no outcomes.

And then there is the aftermath of the Wolves debacle.  Potts and Magassa got hooked at half time.  Soucek came in and looked slow but competent.  Wilson played 90 mins and is still currently here.  Myers came on and looked a million miles better than either of the other CB proponents...but surely we won't get a start as one of a back two?!  Plus there's the two new guys. The starting line up is suddenly anyone's guess.

Predicted Line Up:

But guess I will.  This is my hunch as to what Nuno will go for:

Areola

KWP  Mavropanos  Kilman  Scarles

Soucek   Potts

Bowen   Castellanos   Fernandes

Pablo

Subs: Hermansen, Igor, Myers, Magassa, Kante, Rodriguez, Sumerville, Paqueta, Wilson

If Paqueta is fit to start, I expect Taty to move up top, Paqueta to come in on the left, and Pablo to sit on the bench.  Mavropanos and Kilman seem likely to continue their Keystone Cops impression, mostly for lack of alternatives, with Igor clearly not rated, Myers thought more of as a fullback or wide in a 3 (he's not very physically imposing yet) and Todibo likely still out.  Lastly I suspect Magassa will be made scapegoat, with Potts getting some nepo treatment (although he's been poor of late) and Soucek coming in for some 'old stager presence' and 'leadership' in the middle of the park.  

Predicted Score:

After that last result, it feels impossible to predict a win.  Forest will low-block us, and have pace to burn on the flanks.  Something we clearly struggle with, but with both teams no doubt considering a defeat more damaging than anything else, I expect a cagey affair that ends in stalemate.

West Ham 1 - 1 Nottingham Forest

Is a point enough to save Nuno?  Or is 50m spent on a couple of strikers the real saving grace for the bald Portugeezer?  Time will tell.  He likely doesn't care either way.

COYI.

 

[THUNDERCLINT]

Please explain how?  First half Todibo was superb and as I said Summerville basically scored with a great finish

 

Summervilles goal was disallowed and even if it had stood, he was still his usual, all running and no end product self and constantly out of position. 

How the fuck was Todibo superb? 

On and off the ball he was brilliant. The Forest striker didnt have a sniff and that was mainly due to Todibo.   He was strong in the tackle, won quite a few duels and made a huge diff to the shitshow on saturday. 

The prolific 1 in 19 Forest striker?

You could mark that cսnt out of the game with a cone.

[Manuel]

Fwiw, I thought Todibo looked solid and had an air of confidence and authority about him and was getting around the pitch. Thought Summerville had his best game for a while, while he was still lacking an end product at least he can get up the pitch and occupy defenders etc. Would be decent in the Championship IMO.

[Far Cough UKunt]

We were fucked over last night and did the fucking simpleton ref get both fucking barrels.

Fuck Off!

[El Scorchio]

Todibo was decent and has been since Nuno came in. He's one of those who will move to a decent club no questions. As said we missed him horrendously on Saturday. 

The other two more likely to the glue factory. I think Mav will be OK in the championship if he stays provided there's a decent partner alongside him with a bit of ability, Kilman will still be a liability that switches off all the time and gets bullied by the opposition. I really don't know what we can do with him. Abject shit under three managers and he's got worse and worse over his time here. Even if he's got a relegation clause who is going to want him? To add, he seems like the sort of player who will see the champ as 'beneath him' and be difficult without any sense of irony seen as he is arguably the biggest single reason besides no strikers worthy of the description for 18 months that we are going to be down there. Utter liability. 

[boleyn8420]

I presume that the Forest player touching the ball last and us not qualifying for the 5cm rule as the scousers and other "big clubs" do means that the goal should have stood. Only West ham go 2-0 up and lose 1-2, its the West Ham way. I woke up this morning but my computer must be broken as I cannot find any news of Nuno being sacked, can anyone send me a link please.

[Council Scum]

Please explain how?  First half Todibo was superb and as I said Summerville basically scored with a great finish

 

Summervilles goal was disallowed and even if it had stood, he was still his usual, all running and no end product self and constantly out of position. 

How the fuck was Todibo superb? 

On and off the ball he was brilliant. The Forest striker didnt have a sniff and that was mainly due to Todibo.   He was strong in the tackle, won quite a few duels and made a huge diff to the shitshow on saturday. 

He made 2 tackles all game and cost us 3 fouls, he was his usual shit self. 

[threesixty]

To be fair to Forest, early on areola pulled off a brilliant save that was going top corner. And then I think they hit the bar as well. We had a problem closing them down on our right wing and they were cutting in easily and having shots from distance. 
I think we solved that in the second half. 

I actually think that although soucek scored we missed the energy of magassa / Fernandez and Potts in midfield. Before wolves I thought our midfield was fairly sorted. We had a plan and we had fight there. Yesterday we sort of went backwards to get soucek in as he’s a goal scorer. 

anyways, we should be dominating these teams not hoping Var and the refs are nice to us. That’s no way to live. 
 

[Rossal]

Tobido and Summerville were shit last night, fuck knows what game you were watching. 

Please explain how?  First half Todibo was superb and as I said Summerville basically scored with a great finish

 

Summervilles goal was disallowed and even if it had stood, he was still his usual, all running and no end product self and constantly out of position. 

How the fuck was Todibo superb? 

On and off the ball he was brilliant. The Forest striker didnt have a sniff and that was mainly due to Todibo.   He was strong in the tackle, won quite a few duels and made a huge diff to the shitshow on saturday. 

[Rossal]

I've no issue with going down, no VAR...new grounds etc 

But i'd only want to go down if we were competitive next year. Given the likely exodus, our ineptness in the transfer market and the likelihood the manager will yet again be from the bargain bin I am not sure we will even be top half let alone top 6. 

That league is so competitive these days, looking at Leicester and Soton this year. We will be the exact same I think.   

It needs good planning, ownership and recruitment of which we have none of. 

[zico]

Defensively we are shocking and that's been the case for several years now, to the extent that we seemingly have to score at least three to have any chance of winning. Said last night I was terrified every time Forest attacked and I was only half joking, for too long we almost look like we are going to concede every time the opposition pushes forward. Areola and Fabianski for a couple of years made the most saves in the PL or some such record. That doesn't make them brilliant goalkeepers it means far too many shots are on target by the opposition. That's just not sustainable in a winning football matches context. Far from purely blaming the defenders the midfield must take a share of the blame. For too long we just don't have the ability hold on to the ball, home or away no matter who plays in there whether it's Soucek just not being able to get around or the "technical" players in Paqueta and Fernandes. We are rarely seen to win midfield duels only regaining possession when we win it back in defence hence some of our games looking like a basketball match. It's down pure and simple to the ridiculous scatter gun approach inin recruitment and certainly in recent history for me can be traced back to Moyes chasing Lingard for so long when he finally acted elsewhere we got into panic buy mode. Ridiculous when you think that six months when we stumbled on to the perfect partnerships in that team no one seemed to look at why it worked and then go out and buy the right players to continue that way of playing.

[Council Scum]

Thought we played well compared to some of the recent games. Can't criticise to many of the performances out there. 

Two really shit goals to concede, as said below it just feels like everything has gone against us this season whether it be VAR, looping headers, shit offsides etc. 

Todibo made a huge difference being back, be a shame to lose him next season. Scarles I thought done well, just needs more confidence going forward. After the mistake you can see that he is so scared to lose it he just plays it backwards every time he is near their box. Thought Mayers when he came on was superb at playing it forward quickly and accurately. 

Summerville again worked hard, few people slating him which I don't understand. If the second goal stands like it should have then I dont think anyone mentions him negatively. He worked his socks off in both directions last night. 

The offside rule I don't understand anymore, each week it gets interpreted differently. Firstly it comes off their defender, secondly how is that the same phase of play compared to Brighton a few weeks back.  Been saying it for years but VAR needs to go, it was brought in to get more decisions correct when infact it does the exact opposite and spoils the viewing experience as a result. 

Finally the two new lads, thought Taty off the ball was great. Just the simple notion of pressing from the front forcing the defence and GK to rush their forward kicks meant we got the ball back way more than if Wilson or Antonio were up there walking around. On the ball however he showed some nice link up play but no real goal threat in the box. Pablo for me looked off the pace, needed one more touch or one more second than what he had.  Didnt realise he cost 250k less than a year ago......and we've just shelved out £20m.  Nuno used to play with his Dad aswell at Porto....

Does feel like we need a miracle now, our home form is an absolute joke.  Teams playing well and still losing is not a good sign. Nor is not being able to score and not being able to keep a clean sheet. 

Everything around the club just feels desperately sad at the moment, hearbreaking to see this decline.  Looking at the squad I think when the vast majority go, we will be down in the Championship for a good few years. 

Tobido and Summerville were shit last night, fuck knows what game you were watching. 

Please explain how?  First half Todibo was superb and as I said Summerville basically scored with a great finish

 

 

Summervilles goal was disallowed and even if it had stood, he was still his usual, all running and no end product self and constantly out of position. 

How the fuck was Todibo superb? 

[Ron Eff]

Now the dust has settled, I’ve fully reflected. I was already softening to going down from an enjoyment perspective, but after last night, I’m hard on it being for the best.

Premier League football is largely shit. Long throws, cagey tactics, set pieces. Look at that set of Christmas fixtures. Three 0-0’s and a 1-1. But last night summed it up for me. I really do think they’ve relied on this semi automation so much that they’ve forgotten to apply the correct use of the rule for the offside. Unless he’s playing it safe, I suspect it’s one that Howard Webb acknowledges was wrong. Which doesn’t help us, and whatever you think of our performance, 2-0 probably kills the game. 

Then there is the penalty. Soucek gets there a split second ahead of both Areola and the attacker. It’s a coming together, but it looks worse because keepers come with their hands. It’s unavoidable. What it says to me is that attackers should now just make a beeline for the keeper and play for a contact if VAR will recommend a penalty. You can almost guarantee more than a penalty a game by doing it. 

From a personal point, I’m completely touched out on football. 40 this year and had a season ticket for about 30 of those years. It’s so sterile. Added to being completely mismanaged for years, constantly recruiting the wrong managers and the wrong players. Getting us relegated when they first took over with the same wrong decisions, to going full circle and getting us relegated again. It’s a load of shit, and I can’t be bothered to care about it anymore. Can’t see me renewing. Feels a real check out moment. 

[THUNDERCLINT]

Fernandes is on the offical site saying that "we'll continue to fight until the end".

Sorry lad but when exactly did you start fighting?

Last night was The End.

 

[Rossal]

Thought we played well compared to some of the recent games. Can't criticise to many of the performances out there. 

Two really shit goals to concede, as said below it just feels like everything has gone against us this season whether it be VAR, looping headers, shit offsides etc. 

Todibo made a huge difference being back, be a shame to lose him next season. Scarles I thought done well, just needs more confidence going forward. After the mistake you can see that he is so scared to lose it he just plays it backwards every time he is near their box. Thought Mayers when he came on was superb at playing it forward quickly and accurately. 

Summerville again worked hard, few people slating him which I don't understand. If the second goal stands like it should have then I dont think anyone mentions him negatively. He worked his socks off in both directions last night. 

The offside rule I don't understand anymore, each week it gets interpreted differently. Firstly it comes off their defender, secondly how is that the same phase of play compared to Brighton a few weeks back.  Been saying it for years but VAR needs to go, it was brought in to get more decisions correct when infact it does the exact opposite and spoils the viewing experience as a result. 

Finally the two new lads, thought Taty off the ball was great. Just the simple notion of pressing from the front forcing the defence and GK to rush their forward kicks meant we got the ball back way more than if Wilson or Antonio were up there walking around. On the ball however he showed some nice link up play but no real goal threat in the box. Pablo for me looked off the pace, needed one more touch or one more second than what he had.  Didnt realise he cost 250k less than a year ago......and we've just shelved out £20m.  Nuno used to play with his Dad aswell at Porto....

Does feel like we need a miracle now, our home form is an absolute joke.  Teams playing well and still losing is not a good sign. Nor is not being able to score and not being able to keep a clean sheet. 

Everything around the club just feels desperately sad at the moment, hearbreaking to see this decline.  Looking at the squad I think when the vast majority go, we will be down in the Championship for a good few years. 

Tobido and Summerville were shit last night, fuck knows what game you were watching. 

Please explain how?  First half Todibo was superb and as I said Summerville basically scored with a great finish

[twoleftfeet]

Just watched the penalty decision again.

Totally baffling.

If that's all it takes to get a penalty I would expect 5/6 to be given per game, ridiculous.

VAR has destroyed the game rather than make it better, no point in celebrating a goal until they kick off as you never know what is happening.

Time to go back to the old ways and let referees make the decisions, yes they will make some howlers but I like to think that it evens itself up over a season.

Modern football is shit.

[Massive Attack]

Forest were in control of the game more is what I'd say. I always felt we'd score first but ultimately they'd go on to get all 3 points. They were very unlucky not to score with those 2 excellent long range efforts 1st half.

[El Scorchio]

Yeah then they didn’t batter us, did they.

Yeah they did. 

Keeping the ball marginally better than us ≠ battering us

They looked every bit as bad as us last night but got fortunate.

No they didn’t. They were far better than us in possession and going forward. We just panicked and hoofed it at Bowen or Summerville, or passed it sideways or backwards until their press got far enough forward it was hoof time. They were able to play through us with relative ease. 

[El Scorchio]

Who cares whether it was close or they battered us, we lost.

If you’re relying on benefitting from the thickness of a rizla between us and the shittest teams in the league, then you’re probably going down. The issue isn’t whether we’re close to the shittest teams or way behind them, it’s that a club of our size is run so badly that these games are even a problem.

 

 

Agree. We should NEVER be in this position. Constant bad investments in bad players and managers have finally come full circle. 

And we are the worst team in the division. We just lost at home to 17th place and got schooled by 20th place.  In previous seasons we have had just enough by hook or by crook to win those sorts of games. Not this time. We were passive and meek and scared of the ball and let them control the game. 

[Mad Ferret]

 

Yes. They did. Not in terms of score or creating tens of chances 

Yeah then they didn’t batter us, did they.

Yeah they did. 

Keeping the ball marginally better than us ≠ battering us

They looked every bit as bad as us last night but got fortunate.

[Hermit Road]

Who cares whether it was close or they battered us, we lost.

If you’re relying on benefitting from the thickness of a rizla between us and the shittest teams in the league, then you’re probably going down. The issue isn’t whether we’re close to the shittest teams or way behind them, it’s that a club of our size is run so badly that these games are even a problem.

[threesixty]

VAR has shat on us all season and cost us probably quite a few points directly or indirectly. That’s what happens to teams who get relegated. Don’t get me wrong we are shit as well and deserve to be languishing at the bottom of the table but we in addition are just getting kick in the bollocks after kick in the bollocks from the officials. Four pens against us in the last three games. That one last night was utterly soul destroying. Piss weak in the last 5 mins. The officiating absolutely dictated the result of that game last night. I haven’t brought myself to see the offside on telly yet but that sounds dubious as well. If that goal stands we absolutely win the game. We may not have deserved it but so what. Sometimes any little break can galvanise you. Then to concede what looked like a pretty lucky goal that just perfectly looped over everyone and dropped in moments later was a real kick to the cock too. Everything is just conspiring against us this season in addition with us being piss poor. There’s only one outcome. 

Yeah but according to thunderclint, Forest 'battered' us.

Because they did, in our own house and once it was over our manager couldn't get on the pitch quickly enough to give them all a dry hump.

 

 

They didnt batter us. And thats the problem really. Even when we are playing “ok” we still get done. Mentally that’s hard to deal with. I’m just wondering if there is any player in world football that we could buy that could change things? A great player that’s fallen out with his club, or wants to come to England etc?

I don’t think a new manager can change things because you need a bit of time to bed in and we don’t have that. 

we need something to click. 

the only thing I can say is that Forest don’t looked good either and I wonder how many points they will get going forward? But realistically on this trajectory of bad luck and bad performances it’s looking like we are down. 

[El Scorchio]

Because they did, in our own house and once it was over our manager couldn't get on the pitch quickly enough to give them all a dry hump.

 

Yes. They did. Not in terms of score or creating tens of chances 

Yeah then they didn’t batter us, did they.

Yeah they did. 

[Mad Ferret]

Yeah but according to thunderclint, Forest 'battered' us.

Because they did, in our own house and once it was over our manager couldn't get on the pitch quickly enough to give them all a dry hump.

 

Yes. They did. Not in terms of score or creating tens of chances 

Yeah then they didn’t batter us, did they.

[fraser]

Offside is offside there aren't any phases it isn't like handball... But I don't understand how that was offside when our player didn't pass it forward 

[El Scorchio]

VAR has shat on us all season and cost us probably quite a few points directly or indirectly. That’s what happens to teams who get relegated. Don’t get me wrong we are shit as well and deserve to be languishing at the bottom of the table but we in addition are just getting kick in the bollocks after kick in the bollocks from the officials. Four pens against us in the last three games. That one last night was utterly soul destroying. Piss weak in the last 5 mins. The officiating absolutely dictated the result of that game last night. I haven’t brought myself to see the offside on telly yet but that sounds dubious as well. If that goal stands we absolutely win the game. We may not have deserved it but so what. Sometimes any little break can galvanise you. Then to concede what looked like a pretty lucky goal that just perfectly looped over everyone and dropped in moments later was a real kick to the cock too. Everything is just conspiring against us this season in addition with us being piss poor. There’s only one outcome. 

Yeah but according to thunderclint, Forest 'battered' us.

Because they did, in our own house and once it was over our manager couldn't get on the pitch quickly enough to give them all a dry hump.

 

 

Yes. They did. Not in terms of score or creating tens of chances but they utterly bossed us. We couldn’t string three passes together most of the time and just panicked. For another struggling team they kept the ball with ease and moved it through us with ease as well. They ran rings around us and if they were a good side they’d have carved us open and scored 3-4.