The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

[Come On You Irons]

There. Resident WHO political commentators and gurus can knock yourselves out in here and conduct your endless bickering. All other threads will be locked.

[goose]

If you want the real time data you would look at the Atlanta Fed GDPnow data, that was just revised upwards.


ISM uses a small sample size, if you want something more accurate you want something more broad based.

Poor Goose.

you talk of sample size then focus on one part of the country. why ignore philadelphia?

as i said, ISM is widely recognised and widely referred to.
it was also published today and has told a consistent narrative for the past 3 months.
you can chose to ignore it and keep talking about what's going to happen but these are actual costs baked into the supply chains.
you keep saying how manufacturing is going to boom, but in fact the opposite is happening because of tariffs.

speaking of which, i see Trump has extended his tariff pause on some chinese goods.

TACO

And yet looking back over the last 3 months inflation is down.

i have said it will take time for new manufacturing jobs to filter through as new plants and factories need to be established. Nobody with half a brain expects manufacturing jobs to show up immediately ffs!

Actually inflation ticked back up month on month in April.
It went down prior to April, and guess what? There were no tariffs then. Funny that.

Probably best you don’t make all these claims about tariffs bringing manufacturing back to the US then? As the opposite is currently happening.

[Nutsin]

not really as its calculated using interest rate spreads. if you wanna take that data it still tells you that inflation wont come below the 2% target. the 10 year breakeven rate is 2.4%.

the FED themselves have upped the f/c from 2.5% to 2.7%.

for the here and now i'd prefer real live, real time data of what manufacturers are seeing.
there are real life examples all over Walmart of big markups on toys, office supplies, heating pads etc etc.

If you want the real time data you would look at the Atlanta Fed GDPnow data, that was just revised upwards.


ISM uses a small sample size, if you want something more accurate you want something more broad based.

Poor Goose.

you talk of sample size then focus on one part of the country. why ignore philadelphia?

as i said, ISM is widely recognised and widely referred to.
it was also published today and has told a consistent narrative for the past 3 months.
you can chose to ignore it and keep talking about what's going to happen but these are actual costs baked into the supply chains.
you keep saying how manufacturing is going to boom, but in fact the opposite is happening because of tariffs.

speaking of which, i see Trump has extended his tariff pause on some chinese goods.

TACO

And yet looking back over the last 3 months inflation is down.

i have said it will take time for new manufacturing jobs to filter through as new plants and factories need to be established. Nobody with half a brain expects manufacturing jobs to show up immediately ffs!

[goose]

 

If you want a leading indicator for inflation you would want to use this. It’s more accurate.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIFR

Hope this helps.

not really as its calculated using interest rate spreads. if you wanna take that data it still tells you that inflation wont come below the 2% target. the 10 year breakeven rate is 2.4%.

the FED themselves have upped the f/c from 2.5% to 2.7%.

for the here and now i'd prefer real live, real time data of what manufacturers are seeing.
there are real life examples all over Walmart of big markups on toys, office supplies, heating pads etc etc.

If you want the real time data you would look at the Atlanta Fed GDPnow data, that was just revised upwards.


ISM uses a small sample size, if you want something more accurate you want something more broad based.

Poor Goose.

you talk of sample size then focus on one part of the country. why ignore philadelphia?

as i said, ISM is widely recognised and widely referred to.
it was also published today and has told a consistent narrative for the past 3 months.
you can chose to ignore it and keep talking about what's going to happen but these are actual costs baked into the supply chains.
you keep saying how manufacturing is going to boom, but in fact the opposite is happening because of tariffs.

speaking of which, i see Trump has extended his tariff pause on some chinese goods.

TACO

[Nutsin]

errrmmm your hero Mr Trump brought up the ridiculous idea of making iphones in the US. He chose to use it as an example, all i'm doing is pointing out how ridiculous the idea is.

ISM is widely recognised as a warning sign of inflation. It spiked late 2020 and early 2021 as a signal of cost pressures. Are you saying its wrong?

The only area i've picked is COGS inflation driven by tariffs - which the ISM data is showing.
Same story from Walmart, Target, Macy's, Adidas, Microsoft, Nike etc etc.
Do you think they sound silly too?

 

If you want a leading indicator for inflation you would want to use this. It’s more accurate.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIFR

Hope this helps.

not really as its calculated using interest rate spreads. if you wanna take that data it still tells you that inflation wont come below the 2% target. the 10 year breakeven rate is 2.4%.

the FED themselves have upped the f/c from 2.5% to 2.7%.

for the here and now i'd prefer real live, real time data of what manufacturers are seeing.
there are real life examples all over Walmart of big markups on toys, office supplies, heating pads etc etc.

If you want the real time data you would look at the Atlanta Fed GDPnow data, that was just revised upwards.


ISM uses a small sample size, if you want something more accurate you want something more broad based.

Poor Goose.

[goose]

You’re the one picking one area all the time.

eg: I phones being made in the USA.

 Ow it’s the ISM numbers, 

Hopefully
now you realize just how silly you sound. 

although I doubt it.

errrmmm your hero Mr Trump brought up the ridiculous idea of making iphones in the US. He chose to use it as an example, all i'm doing is pointing out how ridiculous the idea is.

ISM is widely recognised as a warning sign of inflation. It spiked late 2020 and early 2021 as a signal of cost pressures. Are you saying its wrong?

The only area i've picked is COGS inflation driven by tariffs - which the ISM data is showing.
Same story from Walmart, Target, Macy's, Adidas, Microsoft, Nike etc etc.
Do you think they sound silly too?

 

If you want a leading indicator for inflation you would want to use this. It’s more accurate.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIFR

Hope this helps.

not really as its calculated using interest rate spreads. if you wanna take that data it still tells you that inflation wont come below the 2% target. the 10 year breakeven rate is 2.4%.

the FED themselves have upped the f/c from 2.5% to 2.7%.

for the here and now i'd prefer real live, real time data of what manufacturers are seeing.
there are real life examples all over Walmart of big markups on toys, office supplies, heating pads etc etc.

[Nutsin]

Philadelphia revised theirs down from 2.1% to 1.5%. Not so good eh?

You can pick one area of you like, but the full year FOMC fcast is for 1.7% growth, revised down from 2.1% previously.

You’re the one picking one area all the time.

eg: I phones being made in the USA.

 Ow it’s the ISM numbers, 

Hopefully
now you realize just how silly you sound. 

although I doubt it.

errrmmm your hero Mr Trump brought up the ridiculous idea of making iphones in the US. He chose to use it as an example, all i'm doing is pointing out how ridiculous the idea is.

ISM is widely recognised as a warning sign of inflation. It spiked late 2020 and early 2021 as a signal of cost pressures. Are you saying its wrong?

The only area i've picked is COGS inflation driven by tariffs - which the ISM data is showing.
Same story from Walmart, Target, Macy's, Adidas, Microsoft, Nike etc etc.
Do you think they sound silly too?

 

 

If you want a leading indicator for inflation you would want to use this. It’s more accurate.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIFR

Hope this helps.

[goose]

Philadelphia revised theirs down from 2.1% to 1.5%. Not so good eh?

You can pick one area of you like, but the full year FOMC fcast is for 1.7% growth, revised down from 2.1% previously.

You’re the one picking one area all the time.

eg: I phones being made in the USA.

 Ow it’s the ISM numbers, 

Hopefully
now you realize just how silly you sound. 

although I doubt it.

errrmmm your hero Mr Trump brought up the ridiculous idea of making iphones in the US. He chose to use it as an example, all i'm doing is pointing out how ridiculous the idea is.

ISM is widely recognised as a warning sign of inflation. It spiked late 2020 and early 2021 as a signal of cost pressures. Are you saying its wrong?

The only area i've picked is COGS inflation driven by tariffs - which the ISM data is showing.
Same story from Walmart, Target, Macy's, Adidas, Microsoft, Nike etc etc.
Do you think they sound silly too?

[Nutsin]

Philadelphia revised theirs down from 2.1% to 1.5%. Not so good eh?

You can pick one area of you like, but the full year FOMC fcast is for 1.7% growth, revised down from 2.1% previously.

You’re the one picking one area all the time.

eg: I phones being made in the USA.

 Ow it’s the ISM numbers, 

Hopefully
now you realize just how silly you sound. 

although I doubt it.

[goose]

Philadelphia revised theirs down from 2.1% to 1.5%. Not so good eh?

You can pick one area of you like, but the full year FOMC fcast is for 1.7% growth, revised down from 2.1% previously.

[Nutsin]

Atlanta Fed has increased its GDPNow forecast for Q2 2025 from 3.87% to 4.6% good eh!

[goose]

Inflation at 4 years low, close to Feds 2% target rate. finally seeing wage growth, something we haven’t seen for years. Over $10 trillion of new investments into US since Trump took office. Jobs market strong in the private sector, which is what you want to see. Trade deficits slashed. Billions being generated each month in Tariff revenues….. Big beautiful new bill about to send economic growth into the stratosphere. The rebirth of the US steel industry and Ship building industry. US auto manufacturers expanding. Illegal immigration and their drain on US resources being handled appropriately. 


so where is all this Stagflation you were talking bollocks about Goose?



 

The ISM price index is a precursor to inflation. It tracks input costs into manufacturing, and as per my post it’s shot up since March to the highest level since 2022.

Your biggest grocery and apparel retailers have already warned that prices will go up.

The FED reported economic contraction in 4 of its 12 districts and stagnant growth in another 3.

Consumer sentiment read was one of the lowest readings since 1952.


You keep referencing economic growth and manufacturing growth when all the actual facts tell the opposite story.

and all the while the interest on that debt stacks up.

[Nutsin]

Inflation at 4 years low, close to Feds 2% target rate. finally seeing wage growth, something we haven’t seen for years. Over $10 trillion of new investments into US since Trump took office. Jobs market strong in the private sector, which is what you want to see. Trade deficits slashed. Billions being generated each month in Tariff revenues….. Big beautiful new bill about to send economic growth into the stratosphere. The rebirth of the US steel industry and Ship building industry. US auto manufacturers expanding. Illegal immigration and their drain on US resources being handled appropriately. 


so where is all this Stagflation you were talking bollocks about Goose?

 

[goose]

Latest US manufacturing info was published today:

 - Input prices continued to rise, they are at their highest point since summer 2022.
 - Output declined for the second month in a row
 - Employed decreased for 3rd month in a row

[THUNDERCLINT]

Gotta love the Poles!

I bet that pickle cսnt has been crying all night.

[Nutsin]

Gotta love the Poles!

[Jaan Kenbrovin]

Not sure looking back on Presidents away with the fairies is the best idea
Especially after the terms of George W Bush & 4 1/2 years of Donald Trump

Classy remarks from Trump saying he has no sympathy with Biden for being diagnosed with cancer
Probably still a bit upset that Elon Junkie has binned him off

Elon Musk hasn’t binned him off. He just came to the end of his contract. Any longer and bigger a role and he’d have needed to go through ethics requirements. 

The Doge set up will continue.

[BRANDED]

SMASH THE GANGS

[Far Cough UKunt]

I always thought Reagan was used as a glove puppet by someone.

[only1billybonds]

Sven.

Think there's a difference in acting/talking like a cսnt and being medically unfit for office whilst the powerful people around you went along with what could turn out to be a massive farce. Someone was making the big decisions and evidence is growing that it wasn't always the president(Biden).

[Fauxstralian]

Not sure looking back on Presidents away with the fairies is the best idea
Especially after the terms of George W Bush & 4 1/2 years of Donald Trump

Classy remarks from Trump saying he has no sympathy with Biden for being diagnosed with cancer
Probably still a bit upset that Elon Junkie has binned him off

[only1billybonds]

Wonder if they'll be any serious effort to find out the extent of just how incapable of being in office Biden was and if it's proved that he spent most of his term in la la land,does that affect the pardon's he supposedly signed off. And who the fuck was making the big decisions that could play a part in events worldwide. Could well be a bigger scandal than Watergate if it's investigated properly.

[nychammer]

This Trump Taco meme is a bit desperate. Doesn’t make sense when the democrats are scrambling to prevent him from imposing any tariffs. If they were doomed to fail like they keep pretending, it would be a win for them heading into the midterms.Instead they are trying to sabotage Trump from enacting any of his policies that got him elected like that will win them votes.

Exactly. Watch all the political ads on TV for posts like NJ Governor or NYC mayor, Democrats all vowing to “fight Trump” (there’s even one portraying himself as a boxer) but they all fail to say how or add any substance. They might win a few over base votes but honestly I think these ham fisted sound bites are lost on most objective voters. 

[goose]

I’m off to the Beach, gonna enjoy my weekend. You can argue with someone else seeing as it’s all you ever do.

Must be a sad lonely life spending every chance you get arguing on this forum.

Sad cսnt!

 

Yanks don’t get irony do they?

 I’ll be watching the CL final with a glass of wine thanks. Pick me up one of those American made iPhones while you’re out thanks  

Nice to see the Italians getting a spanking in the CL final even if it was to a French team. I bet you were crying in your Zinfandel! Do you raise your pinky when you sip?

You realise it was a club match right? I don’t support Inter so you can keep on reaching.
You wanna talk about international football and winning things? Course not.

[BillyJenningsBoots]

TACOMAN!

[Nutsin]

Errmmm no. An estimate from people who actually know about the industry. It’s been widely reported by Reuters, Forbes etc etc.

Why do you think Apple don’t manufacture iPhones in America? You’ve got some front calling people gullible when you’re claiming iPhones can be made in the USA  

I’m off to the Beach, gonna enjoy my weekend. You can argue with someone else seeing as it’s all you ever do.

Must be a sad lonely life spending every chance you get arguing on this forum.

Sad cսnt!

 

Yanks don’t get irony do they?

 I’ll be watching the CL final with a glass of wine thanks. Pick me up one of those American made iPhones while you’re out thanks  

Nice to see the Italians getting a spanking in the CL final even if it was to a French team. I bet you were crying in your Zinfandel! Do you raise your pinky when you sip?