The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)
Posted: 09 Dec 2024, 09:19
There. Resident WHO political commentators and gurus can knock yourselves out in here and conduct your endless bickering. All other threads will be locked.
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Nutsin wrote: ↑03 Jun 2025, 18:50goose wrote: ↑03 Jun 2025, 18:31Nutsin wrote: ↑03 Jun 2025, 18:10 Looks like Ford is doing nicely.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/06/03/for ... riffs.html
I also read that Starmer wants to increase spending on defending the UK from a Russian attack, cսnt can’t stop a dinghy ffs.
meanwhile Trumps border policies are a major success, border crossings way down, Fetanyl seizures way down crime collapsing as are Fetanyl associated deaths, won’t be long before rents and housing prices drop with the increase in inventory. Good eh!
Did you actually read and understand that article?
Their sales are driven by the employee pricing scheme which is selling old stock at a discount to employees.
Same article also points out that Ford have said prices will have to go up.
The same Ford who suspended their profits guidance because of tariffs? They estimate it will wipe out about $1.5bn EBIT.
Yeah I read that they are killing it, Im sure they won’t offer the employee discount forever so anyone with half a brain would expect prices to normalize at some point, how that affects sales when all its foreign competition will see increases due to Tarriffs if they don’t build in the USA will continue to give them an advantage. Unless of course more auto plants open up in the USA creating even more manufacturing jobs.
Funny I thought we were heading for stagflation.
All these forecasts of doom and gloom, when trade agreements are ongoing is a bit silly don’t you think?
Although it does appear that a 10% flat Tarriff is a thing.
goose wrote: ↑03 Jun 2025, 18:31Nutsin wrote: ↑03 Jun 2025, 18:10 Looks like Ford is doing nicely.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/06/03/for ... riffs.html
I also read that Starmer wants to increase spending on defending the UK from a Russian attack, cսnt can’t stop a dinghy ffs.
meanwhile Trumps border policies are a major success, border crossings way down, Fetanyl seizures way down crime collapsing as are Fetanyl associated deaths, won’t be long before rents and housing prices drop with the increase in inventory. Good eh!
Did you actually read and understand that article?
Their sales are driven by the employee pricing scheme which is selling old stock at a discount to employees.
Same article also points out that Ford have said prices will have to go up.
The same Ford who suspended their profits guidance because of tariffs? They estimate it will wipe out about $1.5bn EBIT.
Nutsin wrote: ↑03 Jun 2025, 18:10 Looks like Ford is doing nicely.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/06/03/for ... riffs.html
I also read that Starmer wants to increase spending on defending the UK from a Russian attack, cսnt can’t stop a dinghy ffs.
meanwhile Trumps border policies are a major success, border crossings way down, Fetanyl seizures way down crime collapsing as are Fetanyl associated deaths, won’t be long before rents and housing prices drop with the increase in inventory. Good eh!
Nutsin wrote: ↑03 Jun 2025, 00:44goose wrote: ↑02 Jun 2025, 21:56Nutsin wrote: ↑02 Jun 2025, 21:51And yet looking back over the last 3 months inflation is down.
i have said it will take time for new manufacturing jobs to filter through as new plants and factories need to be established. Nobody with half a brain expects manufacturing jobs to show up immediately ffs!Actually inflation ticked back up month on month in April.
It went down prior to April, and guess what? There were no tariffs then. Funny that.
Probably best you don’t make all these claims about tariffs bringing manufacturing back to the US then? As the opposite is currently happening.Yeah the ISM numbers were so bad and matter so much that the stock market ignored it. The Dow Jones, S&P and Nasdaq all finished the day in the green.
Nothing burger!
Dumb ass!
goose wrote: ↑02 Jun 2025, 21:56Nutsin wrote: ↑02 Jun 2025, 21:51goose wrote: ↑02 Jun 2025, 21:22you talk of sample size then focus on one part of the country. why ignore philadelphia?
as i said, ISM is widely recognised and widely referred to.
it was also published today and has told a consistent narrative for the past 3 months.
you can chose to ignore it and keep talking about what's going to happen but these are actual costs baked into the supply chains.
you keep saying how manufacturing is going to boom, but in fact the opposite is happening because of tariffs.
speaking of which, i see Trump has extended his tariff pause on some chinese goods.
TACOAnd yet looking back over the last 3 months inflation is down.
i have said it will take time for new manufacturing jobs to filter through as new plants and factories need to be established. Nobody with half a brain expects manufacturing jobs to show up immediately ffs!Actually inflation ticked back up month on month in April.
It went down prior to April, and guess what? There were no tariffs then. Funny that.
Probably best you don’t make all these claims about tariffs bringing manufacturing back to the US then? As the opposite is currently happening.
Nutsin wrote: ↑02 Jun 2025, 21:51goose wrote: ↑02 Jun 2025, 21:22you talk of sample size then focus on one part of the country. why ignore philadelphia?
as i said, ISM is widely recognised and widely referred to.
it was also published today and has told a consistent narrative for the past 3 months.
you can chose to ignore it and keep talking about what's going to happen but these are actual costs baked into the supply chains.
you keep saying how manufacturing is going to boom, but in fact the opposite is happening because of tariffs.
speaking of which, i see Trump has extended his tariff pause on some chinese goods.
TACOAnd yet looking back over the last 3 months inflation is down.
i have said it will take time for new manufacturing jobs to filter through as new plants and factories need to be established. Nobody with half a brain expects manufacturing jobs to show up immediately ffs!
goose wrote: ↑02 Jun 2025, 21:22Nutsin wrote: ↑02 Jun 2025, 21:16goose wrote: ↑02 Jun 2025, 20:57not really as its calculated using interest rate spreads. if you wanna take that data it still tells you that inflation wont come below the 2% target. the 10 year breakeven rate is 2.4%.
the FED themselves have upped the f/c from 2.5% to 2.7%.
for the here and now i'd prefer real live, real time data of what manufacturers are seeing.
there are real life examples all over Walmart of big markups on toys, office supplies, heating pads etc etc.If you want the real time data you would look at the Atlanta Fed GDPnow data, that was just revised upwards.
ISM uses a small sample size, if you want something more accurate you want something more broad based.
Poor Goose.you talk of sample size then focus on one part of the country. why ignore philadelphia?
as i said, ISM is widely recognised and widely referred to.
it was also published today and has told a consistent narrative for the past 3 months.
you can chose to ignore it and keep talking about what's going to happen but these are actual costs baked into the supply chains.
you keep saying how manufacturing is going to boom, but in fact the opposite is happening because of tariffs.
speaking of which, i see Trump has extended his tariff pause on some chinese goods.
TACO
Nutsin wrote: ↑02 Jun 2025, 21:16goose wrote: ↑02 Jun 2025, 20:57Nutsin wrote: ↑02 Jun 2025, 20:39If you want a leading indicator for inflation you would want to use this. It’s more accurate.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIFR
Hope this helps.
not really as its calculated using interest rate spreads. if you wanna take that data it still tells you that inflation wont come below the 2% target. the 10 year breakeven rate is 2.4%.
the FED themselves have upped the f/c from 2.5% to 2.7%.
for the here and now i'd prefer real live, real time data of what manufacturers are seeing.
there are real life examples all over Walmart of big markups on toys, office supplies, heating pads etc etc.If you want the real time data you would look at the Atlanta Fed GDPnow data, that was just revised upwards.
ISM uses a small sample size, if you want something more accurate you want something more broad based.
Poor Goose.
goose wrote: ↑02 Jun 2025, 20:57Nutsin wrote: ↑02 Jun 2025, 20:39goose wrote: ↑02 Jun 2025, 20:31errrmmm your hero Mr Trump brought up the ridiculous idea of making iphones in the US. He chose to use it as an example, all i'm doing is pointing out how ridiculous the idea is.
ISM is widely recognised as a warning sign of inflation. It spiked late 2020 and early 2021 as a signal of cost pressures. Are you saying its wrong?
The only area i've picked is COGS inflation driven by tariffs - which the ISM data is showing.
Same story from Walmart, Target, Macy's, Adidas, Microsoft, Nike etc etc.
Do you think they sound silly too?If you want a leading indicator for inflation you would want to use this. It’s more accurate.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIFR
Hope this helps.
not really as its calculated using interest rate spreads. if you wanna take that data it still tells you that inflation wont come below the 2% target. the 10 year breakeven rate is 2.4%.
the FED themselves have upped the f/c from 2.5% to 2.7%.
for the here and now i'd prefer real live, real time data of what manufacturers are seeing.
there are real life examples all over Walmart of big markups on toys, office supplies, heating pads etc etc.
Nutsin wrote: ↑02 Jun 2025, 20:39goose wrote: ↑02 Jun 2025, 20:31errrmmm your hero Mr Trump brought up the ridiculous idea of making iphones in the US. He chose to use it as an example, all i'm doing is pointing out how ridiculous the idea is.
ISM is widely recognised as a warning sign of inflation. It spiked late 2020 and early 2021 as a signal of cost pressures. Are you saying its wrong?
The only area i've picked is COGS inflation driven by tariffs - which the ISM data is showing.
Same story from Walmart, Target, Macy's, Adidas, Microsoft, Nike etc etc.
Do you think they sound silly too?If you want a leading indicator for inflation you would want to use this. It’s more accurate.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIFR
Hope this helps.
goose wrote: ↑02 Jun 2025, 20:31errrmmm your hero Mr Trump brought up the ridiculous idea of making iphones in the US. He chose to use it as an example, all i'm doing is pointing out how ridiculous the idea is.
ISM is widely recognised as a warning sign of inflation. It spiked late 2020 and early 2021 as a signal of cost pressures. Are you saying its wrong?
The only area i've picked is COGS inflation driven by tariffs - which the ISM data is showing.
Same story from Walmart, Target, Macy's, Adidas, Microsoft, Nike etc etc.
Do you think they sound silly too?