How much space each team allows their opponent across the pitch

[Mr Anon]

Really highlights our current plight, not sure what to make of Arsenal's though!

[Mr Anon]

fair conclusion, like a lot of these things i'm sure the truth sits somewhere in the middle

[kylay]

Mr Anon » 21 Nov 2024 16:27

I feel like the quoted part is becoming a bit unwieldy.

I'm not being disingenuous, and I recognize your point that they have a budget of about half of ours. I also don't dispute that we are a poorly run club, but I feel like that fact hurts your argument more than helps it. I'm approaching this from the standpoint that moneyball is not the advantage it was in baseball where it has fundamentally changed the way the game is played and as of a year or two ago changed the rules in how teams are allowed to defend (which is in response to how boring the game had become). You've had teams like the Tampa Bay Rays win the world series on the 3rd lowest budget. I'll also concede that you made this point on your initial post, so maybe it's just a debate over how much of an advantage it can be in football or a lack of perspective on my part as to how big of accomplishment Brentford's last 15 years have been.

[Mr Anon]

I feel like ever since Moneyball every sport has tried to do this, but that football is particularly badly suited to statistical analysis whereas baseball has always been a sport built on statistics. I personally believe the lack of statistics is one reason americans have never really taken to the sport. It is far more difficult for pundits to bloviate what they are seeing at them with fewer meaningful statistics and frequent pauses in play that you see in american sports. It's also difficult to quantify things like the relationship between a striker and winger who combine very well together. You can bring in a "statistically similar" winger who doesn't form that chemistry to vastly different results. I also don't need a heat map to see we are weak as piss through the middle third.

Except that Brentford has been one team to fully embrace the moneyball route for the best past of a decade and it's done very well for them.

You can argue that "moneyball" doesn't work as well for football than baseball due to it's chaotic free flowing nature and that's true, but teams that manage to see through the chaos can get a distinct advantage. When you look at our transfers over the years I'd say we probably have too many dinosaurs that agree with you, and not enough nerds looking at spreadsheets.

Also worth mentioning that Billy Beane himself said he based his whole philosophy off Arsene Wenger!

You're going to have to point me to where Beane said that he based his whole philosophy off of Wenger. I'm aware he is now a fan of the game and expressed admiration for Wenger, but his revolution in baseball was from 2000-2003. It was virtually impossible to watch a premier league team in the US with any consistency during that time frame much less before it.

As for Brentford, what have they accomplished apart from existing inknow you the premier league for 4 seasons. Need I point out the obvious that we are the team with the silverware in the past 4 seasons.

well I will try and dig it out for you! been a while since I read it, hopefully I'm not misremembering . With regard to Brentford I feel you know you're being completely disingenuous with that comment, us winning the conference with our budget factored in with us doing fuck all apart from that, I don't think outweighs Brentford's achievements over the last 15 years. They've clearly over achieved with their budget, you going to pretend we've done that?

[kylay]

Magic eye nonsense. 

Ours looks not too dissimilar to Forests, who are absolutely flying. 

This is just another one of those examples of where the stat chaps get carried away with showing off their expertise but really it's over indulgent bollocks.

Pretty shit, though. One for the Louvre (Loo).




 

I feel like ever since Moneyball every sport has tried to do this, but that football is particularly badly suited to statistical analysis whereas baseball has always been a sport built on statistics. I personally believe the lack of statistics is one reason americans have never really taken to the sport. It is far more difficult for pundits to bloviate what they are seeing at them with fewer meaningful statistics and frequent pauses in play that you see in american sports. It's also difficult to quantify things like the relationship between a striker and winger who combine very well together. You can bring in a "statistically similar" winger who doesn't form that chemistry to vastly different results. I also don't need a heat map to see we are weak as piss through the middle third.

Except that Brentford has been one team to fully embrace the moneyball route for the best past of a decade and it's done very well for them.

You can argue that "moneyball" doesn't work as well for football than baseball due to it's chaotic free flowing nature and that's true, but teams that manage to see through the chaos can get a distinct advantage. When you look at our transfers over the years I'd say we probably have too many dinosaurs that agree with you, and not enough nerds looking at spreadsheets.

Also worth mentioning that Billy Beane himself said he based his whole philosophy off Arsene Wenger!

You're going to have to point me to where Beane said that he based his whole philosophy off of Wenger. I'm aware he is now a fan of the game and expressed admiration for Wenger, but his revolution in baseball was from 2000-2003. It was virtually impossible to watch a premier league team in the US with any consistency during that time frame much less before it.

As for Brentford, what have they accomplished apart from existing in the premier league for 4 seasons. Need I point out the obvious that we are the team with the silverware in the past 4 seasons.

[Mr Anon]

Magic eye nonsense. 

Ours looks not too dissimilar to Forests, who are absolutely flying. 

This is just another one of those examples of where the stat chaps get carried away with showing off their expertise but really it's over indulgent bollocks.

Pretty shit, though. One for the Louvre (Loo).



 

I feel like ever since Moneyball every sport has tried to do this, but that football is particularly badly suited to statistical analysis whereas baseball has always been a sport built on statistics. I personally believe the lack of statistics is one reason americans have never really taken to the sport. It is far more difficult for pundits to bloviate what they are seeing at them with fewer meaningful statistics and frequent pauses in play that you see in american sports. It's also difficult to quantify things like the relationship between a striker and winger who combine very well together. You can bring in a "statistically similar" winger who doesn't form that chemistry to vastly different results. I also don't need a heat map to see we are weak as piss through the middle third.

Except that Brentford has been one team to fully embrace the moneyball route for the best past of a decade and it's done very well for them.

You can argue that "moneyball" doesn't work as well for football than baseball due to it's chaotic free flowing nature and that's true, but teams that manage to see through the chaos can get a distinct advantage. When you look at our transfers over the years I'd say we probably have too many dinosaurs that agree with you, and not enough nerds looking at spreadsheets.

Also worth mentioning that Billy Beane himself said he based his whole philosophy off Arsene Wenger!

[Massive Attack]

Spurs one looks like Jeffrey Dahmers been on the warpath. 

[kylay]

Magic eye nonsense. 

Ours looks not too dissimilar to Forests, who are absolutely flying. 

This is just another one of those examples of where the stat chaps get carried away with showing off their expertise but really it's over indulgent bollocks.

Pretty shit, though. One for the Louvre (Loo).


 

I feel like ever since Moneyball every sport has tried to do this, but that football is particularly badly suited to statistical analysis whereas baseball has always been a sport built on statistics. I personally believe the lack of statistics is one reason americans have never really taken to the sport. It is far more difficult for pundits to bloviate what they are seeing at them with fewer meaningful statistics and frequent pauses in play that you see in american sports. It's also difficult to quantify things like the relationship between a striker and winger who combine very well together. You can bring in a "statistically similar" winger who doesn't form that chemistry to vastly different results. I also don't need a heat map to see we are weak as piss through the middle third.

[Hammer I am]

We're crap at closing down the opposition. This hasn't told us anything we don't know already.

wrong, it's telling us we're shit at positioning, and not good enough at closing down to make up for it

[Lee Trundle]

We're crap at closing down the opposition. This hasn't told us anything we don't know already.

[Massive Attack]

I love the fact Forest are on the same amount of points as Arsenal by equally giving away so much space across the pitch, knocking on the top 4 door to Europe.

 

[Sir Alf]

Playing a high line, advanced wing backs with a very slow central midfield that cannot press or recover, counter press etc.. is tactical suicide in the Premiership.  In warmer climates ( La Liga etc) the game is slower and the lack if pace, stamina not such an issue. Slower, methodical build up can be more effective but the Premiership went up in intensity in the last 5-10 seasons with Klopps “gegen press” and that combined with the Pep driven “tike taka” possession approach means you need a squad of physically strong, fast, technically excellent athletes.  We lack them in central midfield and up front. Its been univerally recognised in the media, by pundits and most fans.  

The tactics need to be adjusted ( more of a compacf low or mid block) until we can press, handle the counter and have “legs” needed in central midfield and even up top.  If Loppy only knows one tactical approach, and it seems that way, he needs to move on.  As the old adage says “need to walk before we run” and right now we are struggling to walk.  Recruitment did not address the needs for Loppys tactics in this division. The 2 players that have the completely wrong profile are Rodruiguez and Soler.  

Then we are asking the question about the recruitment process, the role of Steidten and his data analyst team, the head coaches role and of course what influence did Sullivan’s role in recruitment via agents compromise our summer recruitment.

We are told that Steidten, Loppy and Sullivan each had “picks”.  Thats it, in a nutshell, “piece meal”, not joined up thinking.  Was that all the result of Sullivans poweer of veto on the coach/ manager?  Did Steidten have to respond to Lopeteguis demand for Rodruiguez and Soler or did Loppy look at an already identified lust of players?  And Sullivans alleged choice of Summerville and Wan Basaka ( agent Salthouse clients) ? Were they already on a list of candidate players that Team Steidten had or were they “left field” suggestions from Tean Sullivan?

No one knows definitively? But either way our recruitment of a new coach / manager and players suited to the Premiership and the coaches tactical approach have come up well short.

[Mex Martillo]

Nice one Mr Anon.
That really is a shocking graphic for us. I'm sure that is worse than under Moyes. We are below average at closing players down in every area of the field.  What an earth is Lopetegui doing?

[Hammer and Pickle]

The image reveals a symptom of a malaise Lotepegui has demonstrated he can’t address. It’s all in the hands of the Brilliant Strategist David Sullivan now.

[Massive Attack]

Still no one's explained why Forests is not too dissimilar to ours and yet they're flying in the League.. 

Recovery speed most likely, they can afford to spend as much time as us not sticking to their player, but are better than us at closing and making the distance effectively 

So it's a stab in the dark assumption then. For something that's supposed to be based on scientific data/measurements, it actually doesn't make clear how 2 sets of similar data can still produce such wild outcomes by way of League positions/performances. This is partly why I vear away from such fads. 

For all the use of unnecessary colourful images, we all already knew where it was going wrong on the pitch with just the use of our own eyes. It has already been clear we leave gaping holes in defence, lack of Team cohesion and an understanding of tactics, things like the above tell us nothing we didn't already know, in fact confuses it by the comparison of Forests form and ours. 

[Mr Anon]

Still no one's explained why Forests is not too dissimilar to ours and yet they're flying in the League.. 

Recovery speed most likely, they can afford to spend as much time as us not sticking to their player, but are better than us at closing and making the distance effectively 

[Massive Attack]

Still no one's explained why Forests is not too dissimilar to ours and yet they're flying in the League.. 

[Pi Alpha Nu]

It's all blips and blobs.

[Hammer I am]

Magic eye nonsense. 

Ours looks not too dissimilar to Forests, who are absolutely flying. 

This is just another one of those examples of where the stat chaps get carried away with showing off their expertise but really it's over indulgent bollocks.

Pretty shit, though. One for the Louvre (Loo).




 

well that likely tells you NF are simply better in punishing the opposition on the counter

I just feel it's over complicating things for the sake of showing off a new variation of graphic. We can all see the glaring issues without the need of things like this which I think tells us nothing new. 

It's like all the xG, number crunching tosh I can't stand it.

Something else that bugs me about the modern game now which I feel has got out of hand is the allowance of iPads/video replays in the dugout during games where you see staff pouring over data this, replay that rather than just concentraring on what's in fucking front of them. It's got to bizarre levels where I'd argue it's possibly more distracting than being helpful. What next, corners of the dugout permanently carved out so to include computer suites of data analysis.. Football is over complicated for it's own good at times. I'd ban the lot of them from using technology etc on the benches.

data analysis is a huge part of the game now like it or not, you wont get very far without it. Obviously this graphic on its own wont tell you everything but ones like it are great at visualising a part of the puzzle 

[Hammer I am]

yeah this is what you get with one of the oldest and slowest squads in the league, arsenal and Brentford look very much like to old City, press high and rely on pace to chase down anyone that breaks at the back.

Bournemouth is crazy though, same high tempo as Tottenham but overachieving with it in comparison. Would love us to go for Iraola if Lop goes, but will involve yet another squad rebuild to suit him so can't see it!
 

[Vexed]

Interesting data, it really shows which teams want to press high, usually the better teams and the ones that like to sit back and defend. Then there are a group of teams who don't seem to do either and that's us, Wolves, Ipswich and Southampton - no surprise that these are probably the four worst teams in the division.

I'm dreading our next two games. 

[El Scorchio]

I think if you turn it upside down and squint a bit you can just about make out Pamela Andersons tits in the Chelsea one.

 

 

I reckon as blue as blue can be up to two blocks from our goal line, then as red as red can be with zero inbetween.

[Massive Attack]

I think if you turn it upside down and squint a bit you can just about make out Pamela Andersons tits in the Chelsea one.

[wils]

Would be interesting to compare this one with last season's under Moyes.

[El Scorchio]

That tallies with our tactics of pushing the full backs up high with shitloads of space to run in behind them on both flanks as we see time after time playing out in matches. 

the Arsenal one, either their left back needs more discipline or more likely I think they just trust their speedy defenders to somehow get back and make a last ditch tackle despite being pushed high up the pitch. Saliba is very good at running back and managing to make a last ditch tackle. Very risky game to play though. Might actually explain those few reds they have had this season. 

[Gank]

Magic eye nonsense. 

Ours looks not too dissimilar to Forests, who are absolutely flying. 

This is just another one of those examples of where the stat chaps get carried away with showing off their expertise but really it's over indulgent bollocks.

Pretty shit, though. One for the Louvre (Loo).




 

well that likely tells you NF are simply better in punishing the opposition on the counter

I just feel it's over complicating things for the sake of showing off a new variation of graphic. We can all see the glaring issues without the need of things like this which I think tells us nothing new. 

It's like all the xG, number crunching tosh I can't stand it.

Something else that bugs me about the modern game now which I feel has got out of hand is the allowance of iPads/video replays in the dugout during games where you see staff pouring over data this, replay that rather than just concentraring on what's in fucking front of them. It's got to bizarre levels where I'd argue it's possibly more distracting than being helpful. What next, corners of the dugout permanently carved out so to include computer suites of data analysis.. Football is over complicated for it's own good at times. I'd ban the lot of them from using technology etc on the benches.

It can be really useful, in all sports. But as in any business, the data is only as useful as what you do with it. For teams with personnel with expertise in both data analysis and football, these are marginal gains which can turn losses to draws, draws to wins, survival, higher positions and award money that far exceeds the cost of the staff and equipment you need to make it work.

Having Kevin Nolan waving an iPad around in the dugout is the opposite of that and we’re likely to make a decent saving on Nolan’s wages, the iPads, software and subscriptions we spent trying to keep up with the people who actually know what they’re doing. That’s just a glorified clipboard.