ARTICLE | A Winter of discontent...leading to a Summer of foreboding

[stubbo]

Well with the Winter transfer window now closed, the squad finalised until season's end, and the equation understood of what remains of season 24/25, it's a good moment to take stock on where we find ourselves, and what is to come.

This Winter has seen a dramatic change at the Club after the great Summer of hope that we took into this season.  Lopetegui and his crew have been sent packing after 5 months of trying to get across to an unreceptive audience his philosophy.  It could be argued there were some mitigating circumstances, with an unsuited squad assembled by the 3 stooges (of which he was one), and challenges in communication freely admitted.

Post his departure it became clear all had not been well from as early as Pre-Season, with the season's preparations descibed to Roshane Thomas of the Athletic at the time by current playing squad members as a shambles, bust ups with key senior squad members, no discernible cohesion in the way the squad played, tactics that lurched from one extreme to the next and a general sense of confusion across the Club.

Finally Sullivan did the right thing, despite a points haul at that point that would have seen predecessors remain in post, performances and the sense of Team simply weren't improving, and what had been clear to many for months finally came to a head.

But this was to be no admission of a failure of appointment by Sullivan...focus turned to who the scapegoat would be for the debacle, and firmly in the sights were Tim Steidten. A divisive character who it's hard to know how to judge.  A tranfer guru not truly in charge of transfers, a Technical Director without authority for the football technicals, and an appointment Sullivan never truly believed in (with the claim it was foisted upon him by Kretinsky out there if you look).  But all the same, having hired his underqualified brother, failed to recruit in the way the Club or new coach needed, all whilst seeking to promote Tim Steidten at every opporunity.  Few will mourn the loss of the big German (although the loss of the Club structure his appointment appeared to herald...possibly a greater loss).

So onto January.  A new manager (listed as 'Head Coach', but clearly with all the powers of his pre-Lopetegui predecessors, having selected his own Head of Recruitment).  A manager we'd clearly been talking to for months....and yet come January, not the first sign of a recruitment plan in place with all the old failings pre-Steidten reintroduced.  Sullivan 'at the wheel', "Razzle Dazzle", false bids, low ball bids, scattergun bids....all played out in the media spotlight.

Leading in, clear deficiencies had been identified.  Lack of mobility in midfield.  A strikeforce that was merely in name, with one lucky to be alive, one severely broken, one obsolete, and the make shift cover with a snapped foot. A new manager that favours a back three with just three senior centre backs (one of of whom is a walking gift to the oppo, and one not fit properly since August).  Two goalies that with the ball at their feet are about as comfortable as an inflamed haemorrhoid.

So surely with that in mind, and a precarious position in the league, there would be a desire to support the new hire with early, quality reinforcements?  It soon transpired no...somewhere between an egotistical owner adverse to paying the going rate or understanding his own place in the football foodchain, the shortsightedness of sacking the combined head of recruitment AND chief negotiator, but not replacing the negotiator part, and the enlisting of "Sports X"...charged with bringing to the Club ready packaged 'deals' that just needed to be signed, and then never being happy with the terms or players presented, the Club would flail about hopelessly throughout January.  Sullivan at his worst.  Potter no doubt exasperated but presenting a united front the for new employers.  A squad ravaged by injury and no one through the door until last knockings.

And last knocking it was.  A talented young and pretty inexperienced striker with a recent record of being stuck in the treatment room, the last minute return of a player few were lauding in August when unceremoniously shifted out on loan, Four league fixtures and the FA Cup 3rd round completed...and just one win to show for them.  The King is dead, long live the King (although few will expect him to live a healthy well nourished 'West Ham' life in football terms).

But this is where all the waffle is leading to.  The sense of foreboding for the Summer to come....because far from it being darkest before dawn, and us having hit rock bottom from a recruitment perspective in January 2025...the next big storm is in the horizon....and it's a doozie!

To caveat this next bit...it assumes we retain our Premier League status.  With Ipswich, Southampton and Leicester all looking like poor advertisements for the Championship being the 6th Major league in Europe, and an upturn in performances if not results since the arrival of the studious Potter, it *should* be unthinkable that we fall through the trap door.  But with Moyes having picked up 3 wins in a row from a lacklustre Everton outfit, bogey team Brentford and title contenders Arsenal up next, and others just above us having strengthened, a few nervous glances over our shoulders by the time we play Everton in just over a month's time can't be ruled out.

So...the Summer.  Fuck.  Even now, the prospect looks beyond grim, with the squad arguably needing more surgery than ever.

Outs can be expected to be: Fabianski, Cresswell, Coufal, Rodriguez, Antonio, Ings, Soler and Ferguson as a minimum.  And that's before the discussions of Paqueta's court case, Irving and Guilherme's ability to make it in the league, Fullkrug's ability to contribute outside of German reality TV shows, Mavropanos' right to ever grace the Claret and Blue again, or Ward-Prowse, Soucek's and Alvarez's suitability to make it in Potter's midfield.

That's 16 of the current squad either nailed on to depart or with shadows over their suitability to be in the squad.  Eight almost nailed on departures from this season's playing staff. A further eight it could be argued need improving upon.

On top of which, our Summer spending has already commenced with the compulsory purchase of Todibo.

So if we assume that Paqueta goes in our favour, Irving remains as a makeweight alongside JWP, and that Fullkrug, Soucek, and Mavropanos remain as key squad members...we've got a fuck-tonne to do:

1 x Starting GK (Replacing Fabianski)
2 x Senior Centre Back (including Todibo's purchase and replacement of Cresswell)
1 x Starting Central Midfielders (Replacing Rodriguez)
1 x First Choice Strikers (Replacing Ferguson)
1 x Backup striker (Replacing Antonio)
2 x First Team Attacking Midfielder (Replacing Soler, and assumign Guilherme departs on loan)
1 x Utility Defender (replacing Coufal)

But the reality is we know that JWP + Irving + Soucek + Alvarez does not form the basis of the midfield we need. So surgery is needed there too.

And how much do we expect to be added to the coffers by the departure of all our beloved but battle weary squaddies?  Precisely zero.

And how much will we have to spend is anyone's guess, but the Declan Rice windfall is long since frittered.  The chances of high profile rich suitors for Kudus...bleak.  And realistically £150m of spending required (including Todibo) to do little more than stand still, assuming just £15m average per player.

So next Summer presents a problem.  Sullivan at the transfer wheel.  Brady in the background 'advising'.  Kretin(sky) firing postmen.  No lure of European football.  No saleable assets of note.  And potentially the loss of our Brazilian Magnifico to Johnny Law.

Another fine mess you have got us in David.  Bring out the clowns.
 

[stubbo]

It's funny. I don't feel truly 'pessimistic' about things....we have a manager I like, a Captain I like, some players I enjoy watching.

I guess the point was that sometimes we assess events at the Club in isolation, and then expect magically them to be isolated incidents. But the reality is despite some events this season that have been pretty poor, we're clearly not out of the doldrums yet despite the above positives.

Since I started supporting the Club we have on balance been a lower midtable top flight club. For me this is just a reversion to that mean.  Sullivan lacks the ability to take us beyond that as he lacks the understanding or the capability.  

We've had some good times over the last 5 years, but unfortunately the legacy of the all powerful manager model is now biting us. If you have that model, the longer a manager is in post, the harder it is when they go as they design things around themselves only with no thought to what comes next.

But I don't feel pessimistic overall...more fatalistic. I expect us to revert to being in and around 12th to 14th in the near term...maybe a little higher if Potter is somewhat transformational. Hopefully not lower. But we've seen with Sullivan we shouldn't expect higher...and ultimately the buck always stops with him. He's the constant whilst the more visible parts of the Club come and go. He and we are a boom-bust cycle.

So let's see. The Summer will feel exciting as there will inevitably be a high churn with new players arriving. Through necessity we'll see young players making up key components of our squad, and Orford, Scarles and Guillherme so far have shown that's something to look forward to. 

COYI.

[Sir Alf]

How dare you take my crown as the WHOs most miserable, pessimistic poster !!!!

[stubbo]

Stubbo, your article is so unrelentingly pessimistic that it has diminished Sir Alf’s contribution to just two sentences.

Result.

Every cloud SWT

[Takashi Miike]

Stubbo, your article is so unrelentingly pessimistic that it has diminished Sir Alf’s contribution to just two sentences.

Result.

[,]

Stubbo, your article is so unrelentingly pessimistic that it has diminished Sir Alf’s contribution to just two sentences.

Result.

[Jean-Luc Paul Goddard]

That's a fair if depressing summary.

Regarding the summer rebuild I don't think we really need as many as you've outlined here, not that we could afford to do that properly in any case.

1 x Backup striker: No need to replace Antonio. If we get a decent 1st choice striker and can't shift Fullkrug then the 3rd choice striker backup should be Bowen or another attacking midfielder. No top club has multiple out and out strikers any more. They tend to have just one and back him up with attacking midfielders or wide forwards. 

2 x First Team Attacking Midfielder: I don't think we need two new first team attacking midfielders either. If we have a proper striker in place then you'd expect two out of Bowen, Kudus, Paqueta and Guilherme to take the AM roles. We're not going to be able to afford decent backups anyway with all the other transfer business required, so they should be backed up by young players.

1 x Utility Defender: If the RWB spot is taken by Summerville or AWB, and Potter has already made it clear he prefers Coufal at CB anyway, then the 2 new senior CBs should be enough to replace him. Probably one or both of those should be a utility defender anyway, given that Potter likes CBs who can play as full backs when in possession. 

Personally I think we should focus spending the majority of whatever paltry money is available on just 4 positions: GK, CB, DM and CF. 

[Sir Alf]

Amusing and distressing in equal measure but a realistic assessment no less.

”The Sullivan Effect”.  Potter has a real challenge working for the pretentious, egomaniac like Sullivan.