Everton Vs West Ham | League | 15.03.25 | Match & Predictions Thread

[stubbo-admin]

Match Centre:

Odds:
West Ham: 3/1
Draw: 9/4
Everton: 29/25

Pre-Match Press Conference:
Official Press Conference

Tactical Preview: 
Babbling Irons

Watch-along:
Hammers Chat

Streams:

SportHD 

(With all live streams be mindful they can carry viruses etc.  Don't click on any ads and use a VPN).
  

[Ladysmith]

Interesting article on C&H pointing out that Brighton’s goal stats or lack of them under Potter were misleading as they lack the context of goal chances created. Xg etc.  Apparently, and I seem to recall it  this way, under Potter they had the one of the worst, if not the worst, chance conversion rate in the league from the 2019 to the 2922/23 season. The chances created were above average. They just couldnt put em away. 

Now it does not necessarily mean they were playing ”samba style” entertaining football but does suggest the hyperbole around Potter being a negative, defence at all costs is not correct.   

In other words, if he fixes the static, slow central midfield and gets a half decent central striker alongside Bowen and Kudus, we will  see the chances created increase dramatically from where they are now. And with better strikers than Brighton had at that time, will see a marked increase in goals scored.

we’re back to giving him the summer and pre season before reaching too many conclusions and / or writing him off.

I agree - but still don't see us finishing in the top 10 next season.

[Sir Alf]

Interesting article on C&H pointing out that Brighton’s goal stats or lack of them under Potter were misleading as they lack the context of goal chances created. Xg etc.  Apparently, and I seem to recall it  this way, under Potter they had the one of the worst, if not the worst, chance conversion rate in the league from the 2019 to the 2922/23 season. The chances created were above average. They just couldnt put em away. 

Now it does not necessarily mean they were playing ”samba style” entertaining football but does suggest the hyperbole around Potter being a negative, defence at all costs is not correct.   

In other words, if he fixes the static, slow central midfield and gets a half decent central striker alongside Bowen and Kudus, we will  see the chances created increase dramatically from where they are now. And with better strikers than Brighton had at that time, will see a marked increase in goals scored.

we’re back to giving him the summer and pre season before reaching too many conclusions and / or writing him off.

[Mex Martillo]

Zouma, Ings, Antonio, Soler, Rodriguez, Fabianski, Cresswell and Coufal high earners contracts finish in the summer. Should free up salaries for some interesting signings. All other high earners, I’d be ok with them staying or should get good values in transfer market. Only exception is Fullkrug, might get stuck with him.  I think it looks interesting for Potter to reshape.

[El Scorchio]

He's going through a lot of the same pains- inheriting a patchy and unbalanced squad at a club in disarray recovering from a disastrous appointment and trying to get them play in a different way, perhaps without players with the attributes he needs until a proper transfer window. 

I reckon he will be decent for them, but they have to do a lot of the same things we do- ship a lot of players out for a big loss, which might well be difficult, and replace them all cost effectively with the right players while balancing the books. Course the recruitment will be much easier for them, but getting rid of some of their highly paid shit will be tough. 

Fair few parallels TBH and certainly similar if not worse growing pains.

[Manuel]

Well it looks certain that we will not score the points we got under Moyes last season, fifty two, we will not score the goals we got last season, sixty and we will only marginally improve our goals against performance.

Furthermore the games are no different in terms of entertainment.

It's a fair enough point for me, but it still goes back to the same argument that it was the right call to move on from Moyes, i.e just that we fucked up the replacement.

I still say the midget fucked up with Amorim. Yes, appreciate he isn't pulling up trees as United but something tells me he would've been excellent for us. 

Can't disagree with that at all.

[Mex Martillo]

All about right comma, but what are you saying? We were wrong to replace Moyes? I remember no one was saying that last June-July. That it hasn’t gone well doesn’t mean it was wrong. For the retrospective Moyes in fans, I’d say Potter will give us the same entertainment and stability and maybe an improvement. 

[Russ of the BML]

Well it looks certain that we will not score the points we got under Moyes last season, fifty two, we will not score the goals we got last season, sixty and we will only marginally improve our goals against performance.

Furthermore the games are no different in terms of entertainment.

It's a fair enough point for me, but it still goes back to the same argument that it was the right call to move on from Moyes, i.e just that we fucked up the replacement.

I still say the midget fucked up with Amorim. Yes, appreciate he isn't pulling up trees as United but something tells me he would've been excellent for us. 

[Manuel]

Well it looks certain that we will not score the points we got under Moyes last season, fifty two, we will not score the goals we got last season, sixty and we will only marginally improve our goals against performance.

Furthermore the games are no different in terms of entertainment.

It's a fair enough point for me, but it still goes back to the same argument that it was the right call to move on from Moyes, i.e just that we fucked up the replacement.

[,]

Well it looks certain that we will not score the points we got under Moyes last season, fifty two, we will not score the goals we got last season, sixty and we will only marginally improve our goals against performance.

Furthermore the games are no different in terms of entertainment.

[Rossal]

If JWP isn't a defensive midfielder someone should tell him he is allowed past the halfway line then 

[Manuel]

Are Soucek and Ward Prowse really 'Defensive Midfielders'?

Don't see it myself...in the 4-4-2 era they'd both have been considered regular number 8s doing work at both ends of the pitch.

Agreed they aren't flair style 'behind the striker' types. But they're not Claude Makelele.

Seems we think if you're not Paqueta, Lanzini or that style of midfielder, that you're a CDM. It's simply not true.

Makelele was a CDM. The player that just sits in front of the backline who's job it is purely to break up play. Not being a flair midfielder doesnt make someone a CDM.

These two are just central midfielders.

Same with Wing Backs...they're not 'defenders' but the equivalent of a number 8 in midfielder....doing the job as both ends of the field. Wan Bissaka as an example has pretty much been our best player at progressing the ball forward this year.  Emerson has oft been described as goo through the middle third...better than in the defensive third.

So they're not 'defenders' but neither are they wingers.

Tommy way of viewing things, Potter in the outfield positions is playing:

• 4 'defence first' players....although two of the defenders are 'ball playing' defenders (3 CBs, 1 CDM)
• 4 'allrounders'...players equally comfortable in both directions. 2 x MC and 2 x WB
• 2 out and out attackers.

And in the last game it was only 3 'defence first' players with Paqueta replacing Alvarez.

Can't disagree that the goal returns are currently meagure. Or that our midfield lacks energy. Or that our attack lacks presence.

But the accusation of eight outfield defensive players is lazy and lacks nuance.

What SHOULD be being focussed on is the lack of game time for Ferguson...which is currently a huge waste of club funds for no value.


 

Yes, they are central midfielders, Neither are good enough to be DM's as that is a specialist role. Alvarez is meant to be that, but the jury still seems to out on him.

[stubbo]

Are Soucek and Ward Prowse really 'Defensive Midfielders'?

Don't see it myself...in the 4-4-2 era they'd both have been considered regular number 8s doing work at both ends of the pitch.

Agreed they aren't flair style 'behind the striker' types. But they're not Claude Makelele.

Seems we think if you're not Paqueta, Lanzini or that style of midfielder, that you're a CDM. It's simply not true.

Makelele was a CDM. The player that just sits in front of the backline who's job it is purely to break up play. Not being a flair midfielder doesnt make someone a CDM.

These two are just central midfielders.

Same with Wing Backs...they're not 'defenders' but the equivalent of a number 8 in midfielder....doing the job as both ends of the field. Wan Bissaka as an example has pretty much been our best player at progressing the ball forward this year.  Emerson has oft been described as goo through the middle third...better than in the defensive third.

So they're not 'defenders' but neither are they wingers.

Tommy way of viewing things, Potter in the outfield positions is playing:

• 4 'defence first' players....although two of the defenders are 'ball playing' defenders (3 CBs, 1 CDM)
• 4 'allrounders'...players equally comfortable in both directions. 2 x MC and 2 x WB
• 2 out and out attackers.

And in the last game it was only 3 'defence first' players with Paqueta replacing Alvarez.

Can't disagree that the goal returns are currently meagure. Or that our midfield lacks energy. Or that our attack lacks presence.

But the accusation of eight outfield defensive players is lazy and lacks nuance.

What SHOULD be being focussed on is the lack of game time for Ferguson...which is currently a huge waste of club funds for no value.

 

[Maverick180180]

I think the reality of the situation with Potter is, if you was pissed off with Moyes simply because we let in over 70 goals in his last season then you’re gonna love Potter
however, if you was bored to tears watching West Ham under Moyes then Potter is an even bigger downgrade,
even once he’s brought his players in, this style he’s playing now won’t change, they’ll probably be an improvement on what we’re seeing, but in terms of what he said he’d deliver when he walked in, not a chance

[Takashi Miike]

I must admit I hadn't looked at his brighton stats but looking at the goals scored (1.06 per game) over three seasons, it pretty much explains his turgid approach and shits on this theory he'll suddenly change with 'better' players
 

[THUNDERCLINT]

Has there ever been a successful, let alone entertaining, English side that prioritizes defending over scoring goals? Maybe George Graham's Arsenal? It's pretty harrowing if we really have appointed a manager who goes to bed at night worrying about how to stop goals rather than scoring them. That's not for us and that ain't gonna work in that cսnt bowel. Somebody need to tell Potter that we ain't fucking Brighton!

And with 3 weeks between games that's a lot of soul crushing anti-attack training sessions the inspid Greyham Plodder has to install his "vision".

I dredd to think of what his planning as a team building exercise for the summer, a fucking post apocalyptic Gilbert and Sullivan gender swapped drag revue for no doubt.

[Manuel]

Has there ever been a successful, let alone entertaining, English side that prioritizes defending over scoring goals? Maybe George Graham's Arsenal? It's pretty harrowing if we really have appointed a manager who goes to bed at night worrying about how to stop goals rather than scoring them. That's not for us and that ain't gonna work in that cսnt bowel. Somebody need to tell Potter that we ain't fucking Brighton!

[El Scorchio]

And you'll also be the first to moan if he goes more 'attacking' and Bournemouth put three or four goals past us.

The fact you think we're not allowed to try and attack against fucking BOURNEMOUTH at HOME, in case we lose by 3 or 4, tells me everything I need to know about you.

If this manager can't put out a team with more than 2 attackers in it, at home, and keep us tight at the back, with a squad worth about half a billion pound, is very fucking worrying.

I didn’t say that at all. You’ve just said that.  I said that if we do and then lose, you’ll be back on here moaning about it. 

[Eerie Decent]

Agree Eerie that home games have been pretty awful under Potter but a continuation really of Moyes and Lop era albeit there were more goals either end ( especially our end.) 

But if we picked more attacking options who might that be and do we assume they are fully fit and able ( Ferguson?) and who would we leave out and in what areas?  What formation and system? 4 at the back and only 2 CDMs as we did first half against Brentford or something different?  I've been thru the same thinking and always thought the increased risk of conceding, by not playing so many defensive types, far outweighs the additional goals we might score from additional attacking players. This is not a general rule just based on who we have in our squad ( not injured etc),   Its all hypothetical but what might the line up and formation be?  Its not to be patronising btw ( honest ) just interested as I couldnt come up with a permutation that gave me any confidence we would not risk more hammerings by any half decent premiership team. Btw, this is home games only as Im assuming away games played using Potter's system is acceptable?

I've said it on this thread about 3 times Alf, I'm not going to keep repeating myself.

Soucek just for starters, yes he scored, but before that, we were playing with 10 men. He was diabolical, and is hindering our overall play so badly. 

[Eerie Decent]

And you'll also be the first to moan if he goes more 'attacking' and Bournemouth put three or four goals past us.

The fact you think we're not allowed to try and attack against fucking BOURNEMOUTH at HOME, in case we lose by 3 or 4, tells me everything I need to know about you.

If this manager can't put out a team with more than 2 attackers in it, at home, and keep us tight at the back, with a squad worth about half a billion pound, is very fucking worrying.

[Sir Alf]

Agree Eerie that home games have been pretty awful under Potter but a continuation really of Moyes and Lop era albeit there were more goals either end ( especially our end.) 

But if we picked more attacking options who might that be and do we assume they are fully fit and able ( Ferguson?) and who would we leave out and in what areas?  What formation and system? 4 at the back and only 2 CDMs as we did first half against Brentford or something different?  I've been thru the same thinking and always thought the increased risk of conceding, by not playing so many defensive types, far outweighs the additional goals we might score from additional attacking players. This is not a general rule just based on who we have in our squad ( not injured etc),   Its all hypothetical but what might the line up and formation be?  Its not to be patronising btw ( honest ) just interested as I couldnt come up with a permutation that gave me any confidence we would not risk more hammerings by any half decent premiership team. Btw, this is home games only as Im assuming away games played using Potter's system is acceptable?

[El Scorchio]

And you'll also be the first to moan if he goes more 'attacking' and Bournemouth put three or four goals past us.

[Eerie Decent]

Formations don't really bother me.

What bothers me is picking 8/9 defensive players every game, and wasting having attacking talent like Bowen and Kudus by leaving them isolated. They are both being hung out to dry.

If the only way this manager can shore us up is by doing what he's doing, I'm not impressed. I don't think the squad is as bad as some are making out, he has other options. We have nothing to play for other than giving the fans, especially at home, something to get excited about. He's done the exact opposite.

[Jean-Luc Paul Goddard]

FWIW, I'm not a fan of 5 at the back, Captain.

Captain? Tsk. I'm named after poncey French film director Jean-Luc Godard, not the baldy Star Trek bloke.

Personally I don't mind wing backs as long as they're attacking, as in the Redknapp days. To be fair to Potter, if Summerville hadn't been injured and he'd played right wing back with AWB as one of the CBs then the style of play might have been better as we'd at least have someone to carry the ball forward with pace. 

[Lee Trundle]

FWIW, I'm not a fan of 5 at the back, Captain.

[Jean-Luc Paul Goddard]

I've yet to think we're going to get tonked 5-0 yet during a game.

That's a huge improvement.  Not sure how that relates to the STATS or ANALISM.

True. But, again, we haven't played Liverpool yet: the only team who did actually tonk us 5-0.

In any case, if you start playing with 5 defenders and 2/3 defensive midfielders in every match and have even fewer shots on goal than before, you'd damn well better be conceding less.