The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

[Come On You Irons]

There. Resident WHO political commentators and gurus can knock yourselves out in here and conduct your endless bickering. All other threads will be locked.

[Sydney_Iron]

90 days pause on Tariffs from the Orange man! what's the odds we get nowhere near 90 days before he changes his mind again? blokes flip flopping all over the place! Still can't believe the Septic's tell us how free they are compared to the rest of the world, yet once a President (1 person with more power than any other democratically elected PM or similar) is elected that's it for 4 years, at least if the British,Canadian or Australian PM behaved like this, he/she would be replaced quick smart by their own party.

And fucks knows what to believe in the media, both sides are biased to fuck, Trump has either got the Chinese on the ropes with this tariff nonsense or he capitulated because of them. WTF

Tariff situation maybe does need addressing, just not sure the Trump version of a pissed off Bull in a China shop is the best way forward? He also seems to have put a good portion of friendly countries offside as well including Australia who so far have given him a bit of a "meh" won't respond with tariffs of our own and a bit pissed at how we are being treated, given the USA exports more to us that we send to them, Trump has also gone quiet on his claims that Australia bans beef from the USA, turns out that's BS, whist we will accept imports from the USA, due to bio security restriction we don't accept meat from ANY country if its sourced from a 3rd party. 

Agriculture department confirms US beef not banned in Australia - ABC NewsThe Australian Department of Agriculture has confirmed there is no ban on importing United States beef."Import conditions into Australia are currently available for beef products sourced from cattle born, raised and slaughtered in the United States (US)," a department statement read."However, the US has not commenced trade under these terms and has requested to expand its access to include beef products sourced from cattle from Mexico and Canada and legally imported into the US for export to Australia.

 

[zebthecat]

Trump's Liz Truss impression.
As Margaret Thatcher said you can't buck the markets.Muach as I disgreed with her a lot she was right here.
A protracted USA/China would hurt both countries of course and tech expecially with their long and complicated supply chains. Just take an iPhone - processors and glass made in the USA, screens in South Korea, other chips, accelerometers and the rest from wherever made using rare earths from China, DRC etc and all assembled mostly in China.
I am not that Trump does complication given the dumb formula used to calculate the tariffs (which are unilateral btw) in the first place.
 

[Mr Anon]

Nutsin crying over his further 7% slide on the market. How much you down now mate?


Winning!

[SurfaceAgentX2Zero]

It's almost like cash, gold, commodities and non-US$ denominated instruments don't exist...

[goose]

US imports are below 15%  of US GDP. Not much at all. So any increase on goods from China or anywhere else won’t have a profound effect on US Inflation. Speaking of Inflation, data came out today and inflation is down, Lower than expected, how about them apples! Trump has managed to finally bring down inflation something that Bidenomics couldn’t do. Some much needed relief for the consumer.

Goose  as for the 10yr T bill , I think you will find the yield on the 10 yr was higher in Jan than it was yesterday. 

A word to the wise, you buy when there is blood on the streets ( fully paid only if you are trading) sounds like poor old Goose sells at the bottom and buys the top.

You can expect continued volatility but at some point this market is gonna take off like a scalded dog with its tail on fire.

China is looking for alliances, Australia already told them no. If China tries to dump its treasuries it will hurt itself and cause even more harm to its own economy.


China is gonna feel the pain more than anyone. In the mean time the US will re negotiate trade with all the countries that did not retaliate first. So at then end of it all the Tarrifs and trade barriers go away so the US can gain access to other markets.

You might be able to afford a Tesla soon Goose, Good eh!

"So any increase on goods from China or anywhere else won’t have a profound effect on US Inflation"
That simply isn't true. If it were true then none of the markets wouldn't have reacted they way they did and Trump wouldn't have had to row back on his tariffs.

The issue with the bond market was the sell-off, why do you think there was a rush to sell bonds that are usually considered a 'safe haven'?

Poor old goose is doing just fine thanks for your concern - you have some weird need for validation on here.
And no thanks I don't want a Tesla, much rather stick with European cars. If there's one things Americans do not have, its is style.

People sell bonds to move in to equities Goose. They move from risk off to risk on assets when they see a change.
You said it’s because the yields on the 10 yr were moving up to 5%, the yield was at its highest on Jan 13th, before Trump took office, didn’t see any panic then.

The scaremongering and politicking have caused a lot of harm and has caused a lot of fuckwits to sell the bottom, some of it intentional.

We have the US meeting with Iran this weekend, something else that could set the cat amongst the pigeons for markets, so we will see how that plays out. 

Feds are holding a meeting so we will see if they lower rates.

Bottom line is you are all over the place clutching at anything you can find to save face and the beauty of it all is the more you dig, the deeper the hole and you haven’t figured that out yet! I wonder who will strike the first deal, Israel? Taiwan? Argentina? S Korea? Japan? 
 

And there you were in full show, gloating cos for a split second you thought you could come on here and call me out because the market was selling off, just before the reversal……. Ag ag ag ag! What a cսnt!

You think people were selling bonds to buy equities when the market was crashing?? lol

Feel free to point out where I said "it’s because the yields on the 10 yr were moving up to 5%", Looks like you're getting me mixed up with some expert on Fox News.

'Liberation Day' I said:

Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)
goose  03 Apr 2025 08:10
Let's see how the markets - especially the bond market - reacts to 'liberation day'.

and guess what happened? The bond market showed what it thought of the tariffs and Trump had to row back on his tariffs.

[Nutsin]

US imports from China were about 20% of total imports when Trump was first in office and have now come down to something like 15%. Both Trump & Biden imposed tariffs on China, so you could say they are already working. Although apparently China has got around this by just re-routing through other asian countries.

If you look at the $400 odd billion of US imports from China, about one third is computers/smartphones/electronic devices. These things have very complicated supply chains and production processes. You cannot just whack a 100% tariff on them overnight and expect the US to suddenly produce this stuff themselves.

US imports are below 15%  of US GDP. Not much at all. So any increase on goods from China or anywhere else won’t have a profound effect on US Inflation. Speaking of Inflation, data came out today and inflation is down, Lower than expected, how about them apples! Trump has managed to finally bring down inflation something that Bidenomics couldn’t do. Some much needed relief for the consumer.

Goose  as for the 10yr T bill , I think you will find the yield on the 10 yr was higher in Jan than it was yesterday. 

A word to the wise, you buy when there is blood on the streets ( fully paid only if you are trading) sounds like poor old Goose sells at the bottom and buys the top.

You can expect continued volatility but at some point this market is gonna take off like a scalded dog with its tail on fire.

China is looking for alliances, Australia already told them no. If China tries to dump its treasuries it will hurt itself and cause even more harm to its own economy.


China is gonna feel the pain more than anyone. In the mean time the US will re negotiate trade with all the countries that did not retaliate first. So at then end of it all the Tarrifs and trade barriers go away so the US can gain access to other markets.

You might be able to afford a Tesla soon Goose, Good eh!

"So any increase on goods from China or anywhere else won’t have a profound effect on US Inflation"
That simply isn't true. If it were true then none of the markets wouldn't have reacted they way they did and Trump wouldn't have had to row back on his tariffs.

The issue with the bond market was the sell-off, why do you think there was a rush to sell bonds that are usually considered a 'safe haven'?

Poor old goose is doing just fine thanks for your concern - you have some weird need for validation on here.
And no thanks I don't want a Tesla, much rather stick with European cars. If there's one things Americans do not have, its is style.

People sell bonds to move in to equities Goose. They move from risk off to risk on assets when they see a change.
You said it’s because the yields on the 10 yr were moving up to 5%, the yield was at its highest on Jan 13th, before Trump took office, didn’t see any panic then.

The scaremongering and politicking have caused a lot of harm and has caused a lot of fuckwits to sell the bottom, some of it intentional.

We have the US meeting with Iran this weekend, something else that could set the cat amongst the pigeons for markets, so we will see how that plays out. 

Feds are holding a meeting so we will see if they lower rates.

Bottom line is you are all over the place clutching at anything you can find to save face and the beauty of it all is the more you dig, the deeper the hole and you haven’t figured that out yet! I wonder who will strike the first deal, Israel? Taiwan? Argentina? S Korea? Japan? 
 

And there you were in full show, gloating cos for a split second you thought you could come on here and call me out because the market was selling off, just before the reversal……. Ag ag ag ag! What a cսnt!

[goose]

US imports from China were about 20% of total imports when Trump was first in office and have now come down to something like 15%. Both Trump & Biden imposed tariffs on China, so you could say they are already working. Although apparently China has got around this by just re-routing through other asian countries.

If you look at the $400 odd billion of US imports from China, about one third is computers/smartphones/electronic devices. These things have very complicated supply chains and production processes. You cannot just whack a 100% tariff on them overnight and expect the US to suddenly produce this stuff themselves.

US imports are below 15%  of US GDP. Not much at all. So any increase on goods from China or anywhere else won’t have a profound effect on US Inflation. Speaking of Inflation, data came out today and inflation is down, Lower than expected, how about them apples! Trump has managed to finally bring down inflation something that Bidenomics couldn’t do. Some much needed relief for the consumer.

Goose  as for the 10yr T bill , I think you will find the yield on the 10 yr was higher in Jan than it was yesterday. 

A word to the wise, you buy when there is blood on the streets ( fully paid only if you are trading) sounds like poor old Goose sells at the bottom and buys the top.

You can expect continued volatility but at some point this market is gonna take off like a scalded dog with its tail on fire.

China is looking for alliances, Australia already told them no. If China tries to dump its treasuries it will hurt itself and cause even more harm to its own economy.


China is gonna feel the pain more than anyone. In the mean time the US will re negotiate trade with all the countries that did not retaliate first. So at then end of it all the Tarrifs and trade barriers go away so the US can gain access to other markets.

You might be able to afford a Tesla soon Goose, Good eh!

"So any increase on goods from China or anywhere else won’t have a profound effect on US Inflation"
That simply isn't true. If it were true then none of the markets wouldn't have reacted they way they did and Trump wouldn't have had to row back on his tariffs.

The issue with the bond market was the sell-off, why do you think there was a rush to sell bonds that are usually considered a 'safe haven'?

Poor old goose is doing just fine thanks for your concern - you have some weird need for validation on here.
And no thanks I don't want a Tesla, much rather stick with European cars. If there's one things Americans do not have, its is style.

[Nutsin]

US imports from China were about 20% of total imports when Trump was first in office and have now come down to something like 15%. Both Trump & Biden imposed tariffs on China, so you could say they are already working. Although apparently China has got around this by just re-routing through other asian countries.

If you look at the $400 odd billion of US imports from China, about one third is computers/smartphones/electronic devices. These things have very complicated supply chains and production processes. You cannot just whack a 100% tariff on them overnight and expect the US to suddenly produce this stuff themselves.

US imports are below 15%  of US GDP. Not much at all. So any increase on goods from China or anywhere else won’t have a profound effect on US Inflation. Speaking of Inflation, data came out today and inflation is down, Lower than expected, how about them apples! Trump has managed to finally bring down inflation something that Bidenomics couldn’t do. Some much needed relief for the consumer.

Goose  as for the 10yr T bill , I think you will find the yield on the 10 yr was higher in Jan than it was yesterday. 

A word to the wise, you buy when there is blood on the streets ( fully paid only if you are trading) sounds like poor old Goose sells at the bottom and buys the top.

You can expect continued volatility but at some point this market is gonna take off like a scalded dog with its tail on fire.

China is looking for alliances, Australia already told them no. If China tries to dump its treasuries it will hurt itself and cause even more harm to its own economy.


China is gonna feel the pain more than anyone. In the mean time the US will re negotiate trade with all the countries that did not retaliate first. So at then end of it all the Tarrifs and trade barriers go away so the US can gain access to other markets.

You might be able to afford a Tesla soon Goose, Good eh!

[Nutsin]

Massive suckers rally today all the knicker wetter's going pilling on in on the Orange man's comments, can't see it looks like the Chinese that forced his hand, them being the biggest holders of US government bonds..................

This has only just begun, plenty of volatility ahead, wonder if Trump is regretting opening this can of worms?????

Japan are the highest holders of US Treasuries, not China.

[goose]

Sounds like a national emergency to me.

[SurfaceAgentX2Zero]

US imports from China were about 20% of total imports when Trump was first in office and have now come down to something like 15%. Both Trump & Biden imposed tariffs on China, so you could say they are already working. Although apparently China has got around this by just re-routing through other asian countries.

If you look at the $400 odd billion of US imports from China, about one third is computers/smartphones/electronic devices. These things have very complicated supply chains and production processes. You cannot just whack a 100% tariff on them overnight and expect the US to suddenly produce this stuff themselves.

To be fair Goose, the US will not come to a standstill overnight if it becomes expensive to upgrade your smartphone for a year.

Obviously, though, Gen Z will absolutely shit its pants at this prospect

[dealcanvey]

Must be mad to hedge your bets on anything Trump says or does. Simply cannot be trusted. Proves it time and time again. What a shit show.

Was quite funny the way he was backing down because everyone else was getting jittery apart from himself of course.

The powerplay with China and tariff hikes is now going to be purely down to Trumps ego and nothing more. 

[goose]

US imports from China were about 20% of total imports when Trump was first in office and have now come down to something like 15%. Both Trump & Biden imposed tariffs on China, so you could say they are already working. Although apparently China has got around this by just re-routing through other asian countries.

If you look at the $400 odd billion of US imports from China, about one third is computers/smartphones/electronic devices. These things have very complicated supply chains and production processes. You cannot just whack a 100% tariff on them overnight and expect the US to suddenly produce this stuff themselves.

[Sydney_Iron]

Massive suckers rally today all the knicker wetter's going pilling on in on the Orange man's comments, can't see it looks like the Chinese that forced his hand, them being the biggest holders of US government bonds..................

This has only just begun, plenty of volatility ahead, wonder if Trump is regretting opening this can of worms?????

[SurfaceAgentX2Zero]

Nutsin's moved his entire $3k pension fund out of Microsoft into Apple. He's a regular Warren Buffet I tells ya'.

[SurfaceAgentX2Zero]

Starting a trade war with the entire war perhaps wasn't sensible, though he will probably benefit from his tactics so far. Starting a trade war with China is entirely sensible - the balance of trade is massively in China's favour and it's China that is destroying the blue-collar jobs that Trump needs to be seen to look after.

[,]

Liz Trump

[goose]

Here’s that well known liberal outlet Fox News:

Fox Business senior correspondent Charlie Gasparino said the bond market crash forced Trump to 'capitulate' on his plans.

Speaking on Fox Business, Gasparino said: 'Let's be clear what happened. Who capitulated here and why? I don't want to say this because I am a patriot, I am an American, but it is the White House who capitulated based on everything I hear and all my sources.

'And the reason why is because of the bond market. When you have yields on the 10-year rising to 5 percent, stuff starts shutting down. When you have the lending markets screwed up.' 

 

[goose]

You really are a clown!

 

Trump panicked because of the markets, he’s admitted as much:

'I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line. They were getting yippie, you know, getting a little bit yippie, a little bit afraid,' he said at the White House during an event honoring car racing champions.

Trump appeared to be referring to the 'yips' - when golfers start twitching and missing putts.He added: 'The bond market is very tricky. I was watching it. But if you look at it now, it's it's beautiful. The bond market right now is beautiful. But yeah, I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy.'

Meanwhile I repositioned my portfolio  bought some great stocks at a huge discount. Didn’t buy the bottom and who knows perhaps the bottom isn’t in yet. But in a year or two I’ll be sitting pretty. While you sat there with your head up your arse.

By the way Trumps not up for re-election. Just thought I’d correct you on a minor detail.

At the end of the day the USA will be much better positioned on trade globally because of Trump, give it time, all the Tarrifs will be gone and we will have free and fair trade.

Call it what you want but the USA will ultimately come out ahead globally and China will fold. 

But you keep listening to those liberal networks that have been dead wrong about everything for years. You Genius!

You’re right, Trump isn’t up for reelection (no matter how much he wants to be). But his party are, and every republican elected official is too. How do you think they would get on if Trump hadn’t climbed down?

by ‘liberal networks’ do you mean Trump’s own words about why he blinked first? The fed would have had to step in and prop up the us bond market, he was facing his own Liz Truss moment and sensibly backed down.

what exactly does China folding look like?

btw who’s approval are you seeking with your little Warren Buffet act? Buying Nvidia & GameStop? Wow I bet nobody thought of that move.

i hope you are sitting pretty in two years, because if your ‘portfolio’ isn’t then something very bad had happened in the world.

[Nutsin]

And to all you fuckwits cheering on China understand if Trump shuts down Chinese access to U S Markets that not only hurts China but it hurts Putin too.

And shutting down Chinese access to the worlds largest economy by far is exactly what is happening and I personally hope it continues.

You should too!
 

[Nutsin]

Trump blinks first and ‘pauses’ tariffs for dozens of countries. 
Raises the tariffs on China to 125%.

lolz

You really are a clown!

 

Trump panicked because of the markets, he’s admitted as much:

'I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line. They were getting yippie, you know, getting a little bit yippie, a little bit afraid,' he said at the White House during an event honoring car racing champions.

Trump appeared to be referring to the 'yips' - when golfers start twitching and missing putts.He added: 'The bond market is very tricky. I was watching it. But if you look at it now, it's it's beautiful. The bond market right now is beautiful. But yeah, I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy.'

Meanwhile I repositioned my portfolio  bought some great stocks at a huge discount. Didn’t buy the bottom and who knows perhaps the bottom isn’t in yet. But in a year or two I’ll be sitting pretty. While you sat there with your head up your arse.

By the way Trumps not up for re-election. Just thought I’d correct you on a minor detail.

At the end of the day the USA will be much better positioned on trade globally because of Trump, give it time, all the Tarrifs will be gone and we will have free and fair trade.

Call it what you want but the USA will ultimately come out ahead globally and China will fold. 

But you keep listening to those liberal networks that have been dead wrong about everything for years. You Genius!

[goose]

Trump blinks first and ‘pauses’ tariffs for dozens of countries. 
Raises the tariffs on China to 125%.

lolz

You really are a clown!

 

 

Trump panicked because of the markets, he’s admitted as much:

'I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line. They were getting yippie, you know, getting a little bit yippie, a little bit afraid,' he said at the White House during an event honoring car racing champions.

Trump appeared to be referring to the 'yips' - when golfers start twitching and missing putts.He added: 'The bond market is very tricky. I was watching it. But if you look at it now, it's it's beautiful. The bond market right now is beautiful. But yeah, I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy.'

[Nutsin]

Trump blinks first and ‘pauses’ tariffs for dozens of countries. 
Raises the tariffs on China to 125%.

lolz

You really are a clown!

[goose]

Trump blinks first and ‘pauses’ tariffs for dozens of countries. 
Raises the tariffs on China to 125%.

lolz

[goose]

The Chinese don't have to worry about getting re-elected, or passing laws through this house or that house, they will raise or lower interest rates if they want to, and they can tell Chinese business what to do.