The Bare Minimum | What could we get away with this window?

[stubbo]

The effluent spewing forth from the Club, and our seemingly barren bank balance has me thinking this evening, what's the absolute bare minimum we need to do in this window to have a chance of improving on last season (starting from the position of no changes).

Goal Keeper:

Areola, Foderingham, one of Hegyi, Mason or Herrick.

Reckon at goalkeeper we can get away with it. Foderingham played the season as Sheff Utd's number 1 in the Premier League, and for the Number is Saves in relation to expected goals from Shots on Target, he was 90th percentile in a terrible side.  You'd not bet the house on him, but with Areola seemingly staying as Number 1, a season of splinters for Wes wouldn't be a disaster.  The 3 youth keepers are highly rated, with Hegyi having done senior loan spells and Herrick very highly thought of. 3rd choice at a push...we've had worse reserves.

Summary: Won't win us the league, but wouldn't be why we went down.

Wing Back

Wan Bissaka, Scarles, Emerson, Summerville

Potter clearly favours a 3-?-? Wing back system, and has done across his Premier League career. He started the first game with Summerville at wing back who looked excellent, and Wan Bissaka as hammer of the year has shown that he excels on either flank.  Scarles is only going to get better (although could probably do with a year on loan one league down), which leaves us with Emerson... he'll probably leave as he's a good age to get rid, and maintains standing in France and Italy.

Summary: Probably at a bare minimum, it's a case of needing 1 in for 1 out.

Centre Back.

Kilman, Todibo, Mavropanos, Aguerd, Casey

If we're playing 3 CBs most weeks, we clearly need 4 'first choice' options, and a decent kid. Arguably it's what we have, assuming Todibo regains his fitness.  A back line that has Kilman at the centre with Todibo on one side and Aguerd on the other wouldn't be the worst in the league (but of course far from the best), and Mavropanos is a decent first reserve for a lower mid table side. Casey is very highly rated and another who could do with a season long loan, but if he had to stay around, we could sign less talented for more money.

Summary: Aguerd likely leaves anyway as one of our few saleable assets, but one out, one in we could likely cope with. And CB probably the area you can get away with it. If Aguerd stays, we're unspectacular, but set.

Defensive/Combatative Midfield

Soucek, Alvarez, Irving, Ward-Prowse, Rodriguez, Orford, Potts

Two skippers of an International side (Alvarez, Soucek), one World Cup Winner (Rodriguez) and the "best set piece taker since Beckham" (Ward Prowse) and yet it's an area of the team that needs surgery. It's asking a lot for Potts to come back and make a meaningful impact (his youth stats were always unspectacular and not a patch on Orford's who is the brighter prospect), but he has youth, vigour and the club at heart at least. Bare minimum, we have too many by about 3, and none that are really the two players needed to anchor the midfield. Soucek is worth his squad place, Potts warrants a squad place, and Orford could do with a season on loan. Probably means keeping on more of the motley crew...take your pick from Alvarez, Rodriguez, or Ward Prowse, all three offering different, unspectacular and unsatisfactory things.

Summary: At a minimum we need shot of Irving and 2 from 3 (Rodriguez, Alvarez, and Ward Prowse). 1 decent player in would give 4 to cover two slots, with New Player, Soucek, Potts, and Alvarez (?).  But realistically, we need two new players here and to leave Soucek and Potts on the bench. Any less and a relegation threatened season will remain the case.

Creative Midfield

Paqueta, Earthy, ???

Considering Potter set us up 3-5-2, our lack of creative number 10s is a real Achilles heel in this squad, with the ineffective Soler's departure weakening it further. Paqueta is the player who assists the assister from deep, but doesn't really post the numbers. Earthy had a good loan, but is raw at best, and after that we have wingers but no visionaries.  Bottom line... we're horribly light.

Summary: Bare minimum, we need at least a creative midfielder that can pass and has vision to come in on top of the players we have. Lose Paqueta, and we're two light. If happily see Paqueta here for another season, but he needs proper competition. One in.

Wide Attack

Bowen, Kudus, Guilherme, Cornet, (Summerville), (Earthy).

On the face of it we're strong here. Bowen is guaranteed goals, Kudus our most coveted player at decent money, Guilherme a top young prospect, Summerville (although mentioned in the wing backs) the player of the year from Championship 23/24 with a great goals/assists output, and Earthy back from loan and winning lots of plaudits. And yet an injury to Bowen and we're in the shit. Kudus has looked almost no goal threat, Summerville is broken, Guilherme seems untrusted, and Earthy is at best a wold card. Cornet...barely a footballer at this point.

Summary: At the minimum, we could go again, but in reality Kudus has to go to finance us doing anything this window. Can we get more for him than it takes to replace him? That will be what our season pivots on.

Striker

Fullkrug, Marshall

The cupboard is bordering bare. Marshall had a great season in Div 1 but whilst tenacious lacks physicality to play up top on his own. Füllkrug looks a decent second in line, but can't be relied on for the whole season, and this means at a minimum we need a first choice and probably a second prospect of a more physical nature to cover when he's injured.

Summary: Major reinforcement that doesnt come cheap needed...a first choice and a solid prospect ins required.

So that's about it.  Looking back, my bare minimum is:

Two strikers, a first choice winger, a number ten, and two quality centre midfielders....all financed by the departure of Kudus, and some midfield shitters (Irving, and two from Alvarez, Rodriguez, and Ward Prowse). Can't assume to get any net income from Cornet.

Probably means a 'warchest' of about 80-85m to get in 4 attacking players (two of which are first team starters) and two starting midfielders.

Any defensive change needing to be financed by the sales of Aguerd and Emerson (maybe raise 30m the pair max).

So 6 players, minimum (4 first team starters). 

Over to you Dwarf, Datanerd, and Cock Piss Partridge. 

[El Scorchio]

Good question. Hard to answer though seen as it’ll depend on who leaves first as to what we need to get in because there’s simply no way of knowing who will leave for sure. 

Goalkeeper- we can make do with what we have
CB- need another to ideally partner Todibo with I guess Kilman making up three when we play three. 
WB- if Emerson stays then we can scrape by with him, Scarles, AWB and Summerville
CM- total rebuild. On the assumption almost all of them leave. At least two in ideally 3
wingers- Bowen and Guilherme so we need probably two
striker- if fullkrug stays one at the minimum.