West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread

[muskie]

Odds slashed from 5/1 to 7/2.

Watch this space.

I think we're fucked.

[ragingbull]

That Glasner meltdown was hilarious can they be dragged into it.

[nychammer]

That late loss to forest was so damaging. Even a point in that game would have us looking far better. 

[stats]

After todays games we are 1/9 and Forest 13/2. 
Unfortunately they are far more organised than we are. 
I don't like to say it but we are as good as down. 

[zico]

So annoying that Forest result as I think they are the only ones we can catch, especially after Leeds win today.

[BillyJenningsBoots]

Is it maybe on? Dare we dream? Or just another false dawn?

*I whistled this in those last few games of the Tevez great escape season.

[Any Old Iron]

A better manager can be found but would be no more than a temporary fix.

Sullivan and Brady, the owners are the root problem. 
 

Alf, Brady is not an owner. She owns no WHU shares. Although Vice-Chairman she is just an employee, albeit a very well paid one.

[muskie]

Thanks.

[Fortunes Hiding]

Sorry about the lack of paragraphs, but I’ve just C&P it from Racing post. 

it summarises our chances of survival, what we need to do ( win some games) and assesses the teams around us. 

good read, if you can get past the absence of paragraphs. 

[muskie]

Has anyone read fortune's post? 

If so could you prècis it for me please. 

Thanks

[Westham67]

*Paragraphs 

[Fortunes Hiding]

The competitiveness of the Premier League means that if you are not outspending or out-thinking your rivals in the transfer market, you run the risk of being leapfrogged.As West Ham and Wolves have shown this season, clubs who sell some of their best players without finding adequate replacements can quickly get left behind.Twenty-five of the 27 Premier League teams who had 14 or fewer points at this stage of the season went on to be relegated. Only one of the two sides who survived in that time – West Brom in 2004-05 – did so in the 20-team era, so things look grim for the bottom three.Great escapes are remembered because they are rare, although the Hammers have one of their own in the history books and there are some parallels to their survival in 2006-07.Alan Curbishley's side were on a ten-game winless run in the league, the same as the current crop, before a clash with rivals Tottenham, who are the Irons' opponents this weekend.Curbishley's men lost 4-3 to Spurs in devastating fashion but the fixture proved to be a turning point as they won seven of their remaining nine games to overcome a ten-point deficit in the battle for survival.West Ham were 1-33 to be relegated and 9-1 to stay up following the defeat to Tottenham, so odds of 1-5 for the drop and 7-2 for survival mean they should not be regarded as dead and buried yet.However, a lot needs to change as they are currently on pace for just 25 points while the teams immediately above them are all on track to get around 40.So how likely is either a significant West Ham upturn or nightmare collapse from one of the clubs currently outside the relegation zone? Premier League standingsBottom sixPlayedWonDrawnLostGoal differencePoints

15) Bournemouth	21	6	8	7	-6	26
16) Leeds	21	5	7	9	-8	22
17) Nottingham Forest	21	6	3	12	-13	21
18) West Ham	21	3	5	13	-21	14
19) Burnley	21	3	4	14	-19	13
20) Wolves	21	1	4	16	-26	7

Scroll >>> table to view

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West HamIf the sides above the Hammers all manage to get to 40 points then the Hammers would need 1.53 points per game onwards in order to survive. Essentially, for the rest of the season, they would have to pick up points at the rate that Newcastle and Manchester United have done so far.They will hope that the survival bar somehow ends up lower, but their poor goal difference is another concern. It would take a significant drop-off from a team above West Ham for 37 points to be enough for safety. And to get to that total they would have to pick up points at the rate of mid-table sides Everton and Brighton.Achieving those targets was unlikely with their existing squad so the board have sanctioned a £45 million spend on forwards Taty Castellanos and Pablo Felipe. It will feel like a winning lottery ticket should one of those players have the same impact as Carlos Tevez in the 2007 run-in and his fellow Argentinian Castellanos opened his account against QPR in the FA Cup.The need for a reliable frontman was obvious but it may not be enough. The Hammers were similarly sluggish in the summer, signing Mateus Fernandes and Soungoutou Magassa at the very end of the transfer window after their midfield had been overrun in the opening weeks of the campaign.The fixture list has not helped as recent 'must-win' games against Wolves and Nottingham Forest came before the new signings were properly integrated.To have any chance of survival, West Ham need further squad improvements. Selling one of their most likely matchwinners, Lucas Paqueta, would be interpreted by some as a sign they are giving up but his good days have become increasingly rare.When Nuno Espirito Santo was hired, the plan was surely to utilise his defensive organisation to stay solid and give Paqueta and Jarrod Bowen a chance to pinch games on the counter-attack.The problem is that West Ham's defence and goalkeepers just haven't been good enough. They have conceded the most goals in the division and, in the past 20 seasons, 21 of the 23 sides who conceded two or more goals per game went down.Their unlikely survival run in 2007 saw them keep five clean sheets in their closing nine games but, unlike the current side, they had the benefit of a galvanising home support at Upton Park.This season the atmosphere at the London Stadium has been mutinous and it is hard to plot a route to survival if the Hammers fail to deliver in their remaining winnable home games, including with Bournemouth, Wolves, Leeds (on the final day), Everton and Sunderland.Nuno is yet to inspire the Hammers faithful but sacking him would just feel like another distraction tactic from the board.Nottingham ForestIn contrast to West Ham's owners, Forest's Evangelos Marinakis has splashed the cash although he has been left with a deep, talented squad which hasn't really gelled.Forest's seven-point lead over the Hammers might have been only one point had two tight VAR decisions not gone their way.They are on pace for 38 points but their current tally and underlying numbers arguably undervalue them as they include the disastrous five-game stretch in which Marinakis parachuted in Ange Postecoglou.Without a pre-season, Postecoglou's massive change in playing style never stood a chance of working and, in their games managed by Sean Dyche, Forest are tracking as a 47-point side with solid mid-table underlying data. If those standards are maintained, they will be fine.But there have been murmurings of discontent from Forest fans after some uninspiring performances.They have scored the second-fewest goals, which is concerning, although chance conversion – last season's unsustainable strength – has cost them this term. The quantity of the chances they have fashioned has been fine but the quality, with not enough big chances manufactured, is an issue.Striker Chris Wood remains injured and the loan departure of Arnaud Kalimuendo means they will surely be looking to sign a frontman.Another concern for Forest would be if their European commitments lead to injuries to key performers such as Elliot Anderson or Morgan Gibbs-White, who have played almost every minute in the league.They also have a harder than average run-in as West Ham and Everton are the two sides they have faced twice so far.
Leeds are showing that they have the stomach for a relegation fightCredit: CameraSport via Getty ImagesLeedsThe schedule, as well as performance levels, are reasons for Leeds fans to feel optimistic.Manager Daniel Farke was under pressure in late November but an upturn in form, coinciding with a switch to a 3-5-2 formation, has led to a rosier outlook.Leeds's seven-game unbeaten run only ended when Newcastle scored twice in stoppage time last week.In those last eight matches, the 11 points they earned is the joint-eighth highest tally and the run was not a fluke based on a similar ranking in their underlying data. They also faced the toughest set of fixtures during that period.They are on track for 40 points and have been thriving at Elland Road, earning 16 of their 22 points at home, ranking 12th for points and eighth on expected-goals process.It is realistic for Leeds to continue racking up points in front of their own fans as six of their nine remaining home games are against sides in ninth or lower. Those include fixtures against bottom two Wolves and Burnley, while Brentford may not be flying so high by the time they visit on March 21.The case for them regressing would be that the new system may not be as effective against weaker teams and that, despite the recent upturn, they still don’t win very often.Leeds have fewer matchwinners and less quality in depth than teams around them. If the injury-prone Dominic Calvert-Lewin's recent hot streak peters out then they could end up on the wrong end of tight games more regularly.BournemouthThe Cherries are on 47-point pace, which they have achieved by being a good attacking side but one of the worst defensively.They have the most upside of the teams in the bottom five but also, arguably, the most uncertain floor. What happens if they keep conceding as regularly but the attacking output drops off following Antoine Semenyo's move to Manchester City?Only Burnley and West Ham have conceded two or more goals on more occasions than Bournemouth. It is an inefficient way of getting points as they lose on their bad days and, despite receiving plaudits, too many of their good displays end in high-scoring draws.They should be okay but, when a team widely regarded as 'too good to go down' are dragged into a dogfight it is usually because of defensive woes.Bournemouth's high-risk, high-reward style puts pressure on their centre-backs and their goalkeeper and defenders are much weaker than last season.The Cherries surely have money to spend and, while a recent injury crisis is easing, they should not be complacent, especially as they have only two remaining home games against bottom-half sides.The rest of the fieldBurnley need to pick up points at a similar rate to West Ham but their data has always suggested they are more likely to be caught by bottom club Wolves than to stay up.Teams with more points on the board are not at risk unless West Ham have an outstanding transfer window and improve beyond all recognition.This weekend's opponents Tottenham rank in the bottom five on underlying data but have sought to strengthen their squad and still have the managerial-change card up their sleeve if needed.Everton are also looking to add much-needed depth this month and Crystal Palace, one of 2025's success stories, should be over the worst of their scheduling demands.

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Latest Premier League relegation oddsTo be relegatedBest odds

Wolves	1-50
Burnley	1-25
West Ham	1-5
Nottingham Forest	9-1
Leeds	11-1
	25-1 bar

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[El Scorchio]

Are the club taking the piss, publishing this sort of article right now?

Back With A Bang | The story of West Ham United's return to the Premier League in 2005/06 | Part 11

[XKhammer]

Everybody has a go at some fans at some point. Even Greenwood did in the 60s.

I think Pardew might be the last West Ham manager who the fans actually sang about.

We still sing Billy Bonds claret blue army 

We already forgotten Super David Moyes?

Nah still grateful for 3 seasons of European football and wonderful trips

[Sir Alf]

A better manager can be found but would be no more than a temporary fix.

Sullivan and Brady, the owners are the root problem. The unavoidable fact is that they are highly incompetent when it comes to running a business / professional football club.  I bore on about it but its what the american’s call “Business 101” or lack of it. In other words, what anyone who had been on a basic business course or studied for an MBA would know but they dont or appear not to. You need a longer term plan or strategy for sustainable business success. It sets out what you want the business ( West Ham FC) to be ( e.g. a club that will play a fast, exciting / entertaining brand of football with younger players and where possible leverage players developed by the club, to bond with its traditional fanbase and attract and expand the fanbase both domestically and internationally). 

The goals, aims would include the trophies and honours being targeting and the timeframes. These may be lofty goals ( eg Champs Lge qualification within 10 - 15 years) and more realistic medium term aims ( Euro qualification most years). 

Competent business plans include how these goals would be achieved. 

All Sullivan and Brady and our owners seem to have is, at best, a financial plan based on increasing their wealth / shareholdings asap without realising that it is inextricably connected to the aforementioned football side of the business. If Sullivan had “flipped” / sold the business after 10 years he would arguably not needed a strategy / long term plan. Made a profit before  “buggering off”. Job done but no he wants it to be a vanity project for himself and his family. 

And its why the owners collectively are about to see at least a £300 million hit to the club’s value.  In other words, their shareholdings. Kretinsky and Gold, Tripp, Brown etc all complicit allowing Sullivan amd Brady to run the club it such a disasterous way. 

Sullivan and Brady have plan ( including risk mitigation or recovery plan if relegated), no outline of how to execute any plan which clubs like Brighton, Bournemouth and most others have. Understanding the organisation structure needed ( DOF, Recruitment Head, Chief Exec of Football, extensive analytics and scouting depts). Up to last season we only had 2 or 3 scouts for example !!!   

Replacing Nuno, you would have to think, improves our situation to some degree but even now do we believe we are seeing these players being brought in are part of a master plan that is longer term? Like fvck is it. Sullivan is now DOF again, negotiating every transfer just like he has for most of the last 15 years. Our owner is in full panic mode, in desperation like a gambler throwing his Rolex on the card table to win back all the money ge currently looks like losing.    The plan is “Max Hahn and Jorges Mendes to sh*t a miracle for us”.



Even if we see a better coach come in, diggimg us out of this hole looks a tough ask and even if a miracle occurred we’d be back in the mire within 12-18 months max.

”No more BS” is what we need.  Anyone got a rich billionaire mate in the Middle East who wants to “wash” his or his countries image internationally?
 

[Eerie Decent]

Pretty sure I remember him slagging off our fans whilst our manager.

Everybody has a go at some fans at some point. Even Greenwood did in the 60s.

I think Pardew might be the last West Ham manager who the fans actually sang about.

We still sing Billy Bonds claret blue army 

We already forgotten Super David Moyes?

[Eerie Decent]

FWIW, I thought he was a decent appointment at the time, a safe pair of hands. I always get behind any new manager anyway, mostly because I'm desperate for us to do well. I also like to wait to judge for myself from what I see.

Sadly, it's not worked out, and as much as it's the owners fault overall, I'm absolutely baffled by some of his decisions. I tried to give him the benefit of the doubt early on, even the Bournemouth away monstrosity of a decision to hook Wilson off on 50 minutes, but the strange decisions have continued, and he can't win football games for us, regardless of what happened at his other clubs.

[XKhammer]

 

Pretty sure I remember him slagging off our fans whilst our manager.

Everybody has a go at some fans at some point. Even Greenwood did in the 60s.

I think Pardew might be the last West Ham manager who the fans actually sang about.

We still sing Billy Bonds claret blue army 

[Eerie Decent]

Eerie, which managers have left a club because they havent been sacked?  Very few these days

How many managers have 7 clubs in 10 years, sacked by them all?

Also, to your point, a lot of them leave on their own accord to go to better clubs. He hasn't done that since his Porto gig 10 years ago.

[Eerie Decent]

I don't think there's a single West Ham fan left who doesn't realise that the owners are the real problem at the club. Unfortunately there's nothing that can immediately be done about that.

But the manager, regardless of his record at other clubs, is a problem at the moment. The squad is not good enough, but there is certainly enough in there to be able to have won a couple of games in the last 10. His in game management is appalling, and his general team selections have been baffling. Had he given us the best chance to win in every game, I'd say fair enough, but 4 central midfielders at home to Fucking Fulham?

Look at the team he started that won against Newcastle & Burnley, he played the front 6 that we'd all pick, in the game after, he changed it for some stupid reason, and everything went to shit.

[Mad Dog]

Eerie, which managers have left a club because they havent been sacked?  Very few these days

[kylay]

I think many are missing the point here. It matters in some sense whether the manager gets the club (particularly here at west ham), but Moyes was failing the last 2 years here. Loptegui had a difficult task but did very poorly. Potter will be lucky to manage in the Prem again after his stint. Nuno seemed like a good choice but seems to be at sea. We've also had different "directors of football" etc. I think the bigger question is why they fuck have we swung and missed so badly now on 3 straight and really a long way back if we're being honest? 

The answer is we have shit owners plain and simple, and nothing will change until they do. We may luck our way into a decent season every decade or so or a cup final, but everything about the way we do business simply reeks of incompetence. 

[Eerie Decent]

6 (7) in a row?

And he's not been at any of them for that long. Wolves the longest, 3 seasons.

[stubbo-admin]

I think this is an excellent assessment. Except I’d add that, personally, I’m not sold on Nuno and never have been. I think he’s yet another symptom of Sullivan’s unwillingness to buy a good manager out of their contract.

I hope he proves doubters wrong. Because I want to see any manager at West Ham do well. But I’m not convinced. He had one excellent year at Forest, fuelled by Wood being on fire (excuse the pun). But I’m not sold on him.

Most likely, if he relegated us, he’d have to go.

All I'd point to with Nuno is his results in the other jobs he's had:

NunoStats.png

We're a clear outlier, including across three PL teams of a similar stature.  So something is rotten at West Ham that has resulted in such a clear drop off from what has been pretty consistent for him since 2012.

One thing I will say though...he's had historical accusation of signing players through Mendes at inflated fees.  I can almost stomach this at West Ham just because we've had the same through Sullivan for ages.

At all of those last 6 clubs, he was sacked, and at Valencia he resigned after a poor start to a season.

Don't need to go into why at each club, but that's quite the record.

I'd guess that 85% of managers over the age of 40 were likely sacked at their last club. Managers do well for a period, it goes stale, and they get sacked.  By and large they have a shelf life.

[Eerie Decent]

Much as we all know the Redkanpp/Bonds history, so Redknapp isn't well liked, just heard an interview with him on TalkSport and he made some good points.

In summary he basically just said our players aren't good enough. 

He used Burnley as an example...last season they dominated...same manager saying the same things, same training routines etc.  But the difference in levels between the two leagues is so great that they've moved up and are simply out of their depth.

For me, it's largely the same with Nuno.  His hisotry even up until last season shows he knows what he's doing.  Gets results. Same guy, doing and saying the same things.  Winning games.

But he's now with a squad that are simply not very good.  If we assess the actual quality levels:

GK:
Areola (worst in the league last season...binned as 3rd choice French keeper);
Hermansen (relegated with Leicester, looks worse than Areola)

FB:
KWP (relegated with Southampton),
Scarles (young kid trying to make his way),
Diouf (Czech league youth prospect bought to play wingback not full back)
AWB (Premier League standard and proven).

CB:
Kilman (woeful),
Mavropanos (signed to be backup to starting CBs),
Todibo (unproven in the PL...cant win headers...good player at mid-division French side.).
Mayers (young kid, making his way)

CM:
Potts (only ever played Championship, young and learning...shouldn't be first choice).
Magassa (was in and out of Monaco team...prospect). 
Fernandes (numbers suggest a good play in the relegated Southampton side, but still young and only second season in the league). 
Soucek (physically not the player he was and no longer able to compete phycially).
Rodriguez, Irving...no comment needed.

AM/FW:
Paqueta (Clearly a high quality player wut with clear flaws that can't be absorbed well within this team). 
Bowen (Clearly PL standard). 
Summerville (good numbers in the Championship...shown nothing in the PL). 
Castellanos (Jury out, but been an ok to good player in weaker foreign leagues);
Pablo (young prospect on a hot streak in a weak league and moved up several levels to come to the Premier League.

Our squad has 3 players who are clearly and undisputedly Premier League standard: AWB, Bowen and Paqueta...and that's not top 4 Premier League level, but more like Mid tier Premier League level.

We have a batch of young players 20-22 who may end up being good enough but certainly aren't established and equipped for a dog fight.  And then a bunch of players that are simply not the required standard.

And then look at players we've lost in the same context either through sales or departures at end of their careers:

Fabianski, Cresswell, Ogbonna, Zouma, Coufal, Rice, Kudus, Antonio, Emerson, Noble even, Dawson. 

Solid established proven Premier League pros, all replaced on the cheap with substandard replacements. 9 of them with clear leadership skills.

It's not really any surprise we are where we are. The squad has been allowed to drift in terms of quality, has no strong characters for when times are tough.

None of that is on this manager.

I think this is an excellent assessment. Except I’d add that, personally, I’m not sold on Nuno and never have been. I think he’s yet another symptom of Sullivan’s unwillingness to buy a good manager out of their contract.

I hope he proves doubters wrong. Because I want to see any manager at West Ham do well. But I’m not convinced. He had one excellent year at Forest, fuelled by Wood being on fire (excuse the pun). But I’m not sold on him.

Most likely, if he relegated us, he’d have to go.

All I'd point to with Nuno is his results in the other jobs he's had:

NunoStats.png

We're a clear outlier, including across three PL teams of a similar stature.  So something is rotten at West Ham that has resulted in such a clear drop off from what has been pretty consistent for him since 2012.

One thing I will say though...he's had historical accusation of signing players through Mendes at inflated fees.  I can almost stomach this at West Ham just because we've had the same through Sullivan for ages.

At all of those last 6 clubs, he was sacked, and at Valencia he resigned after a poor start to a season.

Don't need to go into why at each club, but that's quite the record.

[Massive Attack]

I felt the same about Lopetegui and Potter.

They are paycheque managers.

Moyes, for all his flaws, got it. Bilic likewise. Even Pardew “got” it.

Some players get it quickly: like Tevez, when he asked about the hammers on the badge and was blown away by what the history meant. Others don’t.

Hope I’m wrong. But I feel like Nuno doesn’t get that it’s visceral here.











 

 

Think that's a bit unfair on Lopetegui. I felt he tried to embrace the Club from the start, would get involved and try to understand it and would go out of his way to give it his all for the cause. Worth remembering he immediately returned to the dug out very soon after burying his beloved old man during a difficult patch. Never hid and wanted to turn it around. Had an effect on the likes of Bowen who made a big song and dance about him going on Instagram which I wouldn't expect the same reaction to Nuno or Potter. I think even at one point he was doing skits with Danny Dyer trying to have fun with it. It felt like he did care and not just here for a quick buck unlike this present wanker who made sure to squeeze as much out of Sullivan as he could before joining disputing the contract length etc. 

Sorry, mate, I know you liked Lopetegui. But I just never got that impression of him at all. He barely spoke English, despite having managed at Wolves for almost a year. He didn't come across as integrated at the club at all. And he was in and out of West Ham before you could blink - just like Potter. History won't be kind to him here. It's just how it is.

It's certainly a lot kinder that it will be for both Potter and now Nuno. And it just wasn't true he could barely speak English, not perfect but he could definitely speak it. How did Potters perfect pronunciation of English and telling everyone endless platitudes full of cliches what they wanted to hear work out? In fact he cannot speak any Arabic at all yet still managed to get Qatar qualified for a World Cup for the first time ever with very limited time. His points record after as many games stands up with any other manager we've had in the Prem..



And he wasn't just tasked with getting only results like the 2 that have followed him, he was also asked to completely change the playing style from Moyesball that was such a difficult job to do with the tools available to him.

Like I said at the time of sacking him we shouldn't have been so hasty and to let him see the season out to see where we are at as a Club in a calm environment with cool heads thinking who else could come in that could do a better job. What I feared happening come to fruition by rushing in to ditching him for 2 successive failures of epic proportions that has now left the Club on it's knees.