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The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

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Come On You Irons
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The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Post Come On You Irons »

There. Resident WHO political commentators and gurus can knock yourselves out in here and conduct your endless bickering. All other threads will be locked.
Nutsin
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Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Post Nutsin »

goose wrote: 10 Apr 2025, 10:07 US imports from China were about 20% of total imports when Trump was first in office and have now come down to something like 15%. Both Trump & Biden imposed tariffs on China, so you could say they are already working. Although apparently China has got around this by just re-routing through other asian countries.

If you look at the $400 odd billion of US imports from China, about one third is computers/smartphones/electronic devices. These things have very complicated supply chains and production processes. You cannot just whack a 100% tariff on them overnight and expect the US to suddenly produce this stuff themselves.
US imports are below 15%  of US GDP. Not much at all. So any increase on goods from China or anywhere else won’t have a profound effect on US Inflation. Speaking of Inflation, data came out today and inflation is down, Lower than expected, how about them apples! Trump has managed to finally bring down inflation something that Bidenomics couldn’t do. Some much needed relief for the consumer.

Goose  as for the 10yr T bill , I think you will find the yield on the 10 yr was higher in Jan than it was yesterday. 

A word to the wise, you buy when there is blood on the streets ( fully paid only if you are trading) sounds like poor old Goose sells at the bottom and buys the top.

You can expect continued volatility but at some point this market is gonna take off like a scalded dog with its tail on fire.

China is looking for alliances, Australia already told them no. If China tries to dump its treasuries it will hurt itself and cause even more harm to its own economy.


China is gonna feel the pain more than anyone. In the mean time the US will re negotiate trade with all the countries that did not retaliate first. So at then end of it all the Tarrifs and trade barriers go away so the US can gain access to other markets.

You might be able to afford a Tesla soon Goose, Good eh!
Nutsin
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Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Post Nutsin »

Sydney_Iron wrote: 10 Apr 2025, 10:00 Massive suckers rally today🤣 all the knicker wetter's going pilling on in on the Orange man's comments, can't see it looks like the Chinese that forced his hand, them being the biggest holders of US government bonds..................

This has only just begun, plenty of volatility ahead, wonder if Trump is regretting opening this can of worms?????
Japan are the highest holders of US Treasuries, not China.
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goose
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Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Post goose »

Sounds like a national emergency to me.
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SurfaceAgentX2Zero
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Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Post SurfaceAgentX2Zero »

goose wrote: 10 Apr 2025, 10:07 US imports from China were about 20% of total imports when Trump was first in office and have now come down to something like 15%. Both Trump & Biden imposed tariffs on China, so you could say they are already working. Although apparently China has got around this by just re-routing through other asian countries.

If you look at the $400 odd billion of US imports from China, about one third is computers/smartphones/electronic devices. These things have very complicated supply chains and production processes. You cannot just whack a 100% tariff on them overnight and expect the US to suddenly produce this stuff themselves.
To be fair Goose, the US will not come to a standstill overnight if it becomes expensive to upgrade your smartphone for a year.

Obviously, though, Gen Z will absolutely shit its pants at this prospect
dealcanvey
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Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Post dealcanvey »

Must be mad to hedge your bets on anything Trump says or does. Simply cannot be trusted. Proves it time and time again. What a shit show.

Was quite funny the way he was backing down because everyone else was getting jittery apart from himself of course.

The powerplay with China and tariff hikes is now going to be purely down to Trumps ego and nothing more. 
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goose
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Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Post goose »

US imports from China were about 20% of total imports when Trump was first in office and have now come down to something like 15%. Both Trump & Biden imposed tariffs on China, so you could say they are already working. Although apparently China has got around this by just re-routing through other asian countries.

If you look at the $400 odd billion of US imports from China, about one third is computers/smartphones/electronic devices. These things have very complicated supply chains and production processes. You cannot just whack a 100% tariff on them overnight and expect the US to suddenly produce this stuff themselves.
Sydney_Iron
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Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Post Sydney_Iron »

Massive suckers rally today🤣 all the knicker wetter's going pilling on in on the Orange man's comments, can't see it looks like the Chinese that forced his hand, them being the biggest holders of US government bonds..................

This has only just begun, plenty of volatility ahead, wonder if Trump is regretting opening this can of worms?????
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SurfaceAgentX2Zero
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Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Post SurfaceAgentX2Zero »

Nutsin's moved his entire $3k pension fund out of Microsoft into Apple. He's a regular Warren Buffet I tells ya'.
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SurfaceAgentX2Zero
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Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Post SurfaceAgentX2Zero »

Starting a trade war with the entire war perhaps wasn't sensible, though he will probably benefit from his tactics so far. Starting a trade war with China is entirely sensible - the balance of trade is massively in China's favour and it's China that is destroying the blue-collar jobs that Trump needs to be seen to look after.
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goose
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Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Post goose »

Here’s that well known liberal outlet Fox News:

Fox Business senior correspondent Charlie Gasparino said the bond market crash forced Trump to 'capitulate' on his plans.

Speaking on Fox Business, Gasparino said: 'Let's be clear what happened. Who capitulated here and why? I don't want to say this because I am a patriot, I am an American, but it is the White House who capitulated based on everything I hear and all my sources.

'And the reason why is because of the bond market. When you have yields on the 10-year rising to 5 percent, stuff starts shutting down. When you have the lending markets screwed up.' 

 
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goose
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Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Post goose »

Nutsin wrote: 09 Apr 2025, 23:16
goose wrote: 09 Apr 2025, 22:59
Nutsin wrote: 09 Apr 2025, 22:57
You really are a clown!
 
Trump panicked because of the markets, he’s admitted as much:

'I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line. They were getting yippie, you know, getting a little bit yippie, a little bit afraid,' he said at the White House during an event honoring car racing champions.

Trump appeared to be referring to the 'yips' - when golfers start twitching and missing putts.He added: 'The bond market is very tricky. I was watching it. But if you look at it now, it's it's beautiful. The bond market right now is beautiful. But yeah, I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy.'
Meanwhile I repositioned my portfolio  bought some great stocks at a huge discount. Didn’t buy the bottom and who knows perhaps the bottom isn’t in yet. But in a year or two I’ll be sitting pretty. While you sat there with your head up your arse.

By the way Trumps not up for re-election. Just thought I’d correct you on a minor detail.

At the end of the day the USA will be much better positioned on trade globally because of Trump, give it time, all the Tarrifs will be gone and we will have free and fair trade.

Call it what you want but the USA will ultimately come out ahead globally and China will fold. 

But you keep listening to those liberal networks that have been dead wrong about everything for years. You Genius!
You’re right, Trump isn’t up for reelection (no matter how much he wants to be). But his party are, and every republican elected official is too. How do you think they would get on if Trump hadn’t climbed down?

by ‘liberal networks’ do you mean Trump’s own words about why he blinked first? The fed would have had to step in and prop up the us bond market, he was facing his own Liz Truss moment and sensibly backed down.

what exactly does China folding look like?

btw who’s approval are you seeking with your little Warren Buffet act? Buying Nvidia & GameStop? Wow I bet nobody thought of that move.

i hope you are sitting pretty in two years, because if your ‘portfolio’ isn’t then something very bad had happened in the world.
Nutsin
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Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Post Nutsin »

And to all you fuckwits cheering on China understand if Trump shuts down Chinese access to U S Markets that not only hurts China but it hurts Putin too.

And shutting down Chinese access to the worlds largest economy by far is exactly what is happening and I personally hope it continues.

You should too!
 
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Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Post Nutsin »

goose wrote: 09 Apr 2025, 22:59
Nutsin wrote: 09 Apr 2025, 22:57
goose wrote: 09 Apr 2025, 19:00 Trump blinks first and ‘pauses’ tariffs for dozens of countries. 
Raises the tariffs on China to 125%.

lolz
You really are a clown!
 
Trump panicked because of the markets, he’s admitted as much:

'I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line. They were getting yippie, you know, getting a little bit yippie, a little bit afraid,' he said at the White House during an event honoring car racing champions.

Trump appeared to be referring to the 'yips' - when golfers start twitching and missing putts.He added: 'The bond market is very tricky. I was watching it. But if you look at it now, it's it's beautiful. The bond market right now is beautiful. But yeah, I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy.'
Meanwhile I repositioned my portfolio  bought some great stocks at a huge discount. Didn’t buy the bottom and who knows perhaps the bottom isn’t in yet. But in a year or two I’ll be sitting pretty. While you sat there with your head up your arse.

By the way Trumps not up for re-election. Just thought I’d correct you on a minor detail.

At the end of the day the USA will be much better positioned on trade globally because of Trump, give it time, all the Tarrifs will be gone and we will have free and fair trade.

Call it what you want but the USA will ultimately come out ahead globally and China will fold. 

But you keep listening to those liberal networks that have been dead wrong about everything for years. You Genius!
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goose
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Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Post goose »

Nutsin wrote: 09 Apr 2025, 22:57
goose wrote: 09 Apr 2025, 19:00 Trump blinks first and ‘pauses’ tariffs for dozens of countries. 
Raises the tariffs on China to 125%.

lolz
You really are a clown!
 
 
Trump panicked because of the markets, he’s admitted as much:

'I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line. They were getting yippie, you know, getting a little bit yippie, a little bit afraid,' he said at the White House during an event honoring car racing champions.

Trump appeared to be referring to the 'yips' - when golfers start twitching and missing putts.He added: 'The bond market is very tricky. I was watching it. But if you look at it now, it's it's beautiful. The bond market right now is beautiful. But yeah, I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy.'
Nutsin
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Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Post Nutsin »

goose wrote: 09 Apr 2025, 19:00 Trump blinks first and ‘pauses’ tariffs for dozens of countries. 
Raises the tariffs on China to 125%.

lolz
You really are a clown!
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goose
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Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Post goose »

Trump blinks first and ‘pauses’ tariffs for dozens of countries. 
Raises the tariffs on China to 125%.

lolz
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goose
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Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Post goose »

The Chinese don't have to worry about getting re-elected, or passing laws through this house or that house, they will raise or lower interest rates if they want to, and they can tell Chinese business what to do.

 
dealcanvey
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Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Post dealcanvey »

Countries are gonna fold to the new global market place. And so will China. Although I think Trump will make China feel the pain for a while before he makes a deal.

China certainly are not folding at the moment. Just hit the US back with an increased tariff of 84%. Not going to be plain sailing for Trump with China when the US are far more reliant on Chinese importa rather than the other way round.
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Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Post goose »

Nutsin wrote: 07 Apr 2025, 21:40 Re-allocated funds in my 401k personal pension today, was heavily weighted in Bonds with a 50-50 split in foreign and US stocks.
Was down 3.84% YTD but still up 6.3% over 1 year.
moved into the Fidelity S&P 500 mutual fund mainly , NVIDIA, Google, Apple etc.

and the MIP CL 1 fund. T Bills, Fnma BofA. 

Countries are gonna fold to the new global market place. And so will China. Although I think Trump will make China feel the pain for a while before he makes a deal.

Not a get rich quick play but a nice Long term play. I am layering in, so I have saved some powder in case it drops further.

with savings I’m looking at the QQQ ETF, NVIDIA and GameStop looks interesting. Risk reward looks good. So do the Bollinger bands. Could still see volatility so layering in still. VIX looks like a good short at these lofty levels, VIX hasn’t been this high since COVID and isn’t far off from the Collapse of Lehman shock.

Nice to see Bill Ackman is getting crushed. Man is a weasel! Probably getting whacked with margin calls. Gold selling is probably because investors/traders have to sell to cover margin calls.

Remember the trend is your friend till the bend at the end.

The sky isn’t falling, stop listening to the scaremongering. Buy American! And don’t expect to buy the bottom. 
I hope Nutsin is okay.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ic-deepens

Outside of the bond sell off, global hedge funds are dropping US tech stocks at an alarming rate.

Didn't he say there was no way China could win this trade war?
Monsieur merde de cheval
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Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Post Monsieur merde de cheval »

OBR
AKA the blob/cunts
Stay strong  and we will prevail 
God bless all of Christian faith


 
Monsieur merde de cheval
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Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Post Monsieur merde de cheval »

Sydney_Iron wrote: 06 Apr 2025, 02:41 I see Jaguar are the first car manufacturer to come out and say they are suspending exports to the USA for the time being, didn't they go woke last year so no surprise with this, not that anyone is buying their cars anyway🙄

Personally think the impact from these tariffs won't be as bad as the "experts" think, its all pitchfork shaking and doom and gloom right now but things will settle down, and although the US consumer will have to pay more, some of these tariff costs will be absorbed by producers and importers, then factor in that Oil has fallen about 10%, transport costs (for the near term at least) will be lower which again will absorb some of the impact.

Some silly cunts ("experts") on varies US TV channels bemoaning that Trump had lost retirees and investors billions, silly cunts are lying as it's the value of investment that has gone down and that's just part and parcel of market movements, it's just a bit more volatile than normal and so unless you sell right now, its factually incorrect that you have lost money, but i think they know that but it does fit the narrative!

Maybe see a bit more downside and then things will stabilize, but maybe a while before we get anything to resemble a bull market, used to love this kind of volatility when i traded, make hay while the sun shines, short term positions as the market swung one way then the other, fuck the fundamentals, momentum and fear from the public would see some great trades, back in the floor trading days it was even better🤑 sadly when electronic trading took over, things slowly dried up as algorithms and advanced system trades arbitraged out a lot of the opportunities that used to exist, i gave it away about 2012 but often look at what i did and how it would fare in today's markets, not very well at all, but that's just the evolution of the markets, need very different strategy's to make a living today, more for tech nerds than contrarians and opportunists.
You know it Sydney son
Monsieur merde de cheval
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Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Post Monsieur merde de cheval »

Mr Anon" wrote: 05 Apr 2025, 09:05
goose wrote: 05 Apr 2025, 07:39
Nutsin wrote: 05 Apr 2025, 02:14
I remember Janet Yellen telling us all that Biden’s inflation was transitory, Then having to walk it back admitting she was wrong.

All Powell has said that the odds have increased.

Todays jobs numbers came in higher than expected.
Oil prices down, Interest rates down, so is Gold. Gold/ silver ratio is at an extreme, is gold overbought? Or does Silver have some catching up to do?

Only people throwing their toys in the air are the talking head traders who are losing their shirts, probably have long positions on margin and are getting hammered with margin calls and the propogandists that want you all to believe the sky is falling. LOL
Let’s see what happens.

Might take a minute but all those countries with Tariffs and trade barriers  will cave. You’ll see. Even China, they know they can’t beat the USA in a trade war.

Just give it time! 

And then you Drama queens can disappear again.

Tell me why China can’t beat the USA in a trade war? The balance of trade is heavily in their favour, belt & road initiative means their trading partners are diversified across the globe, and most importantly their political set up gives them far greater tolerance to suffer the economic consequences.

Predicted inflation is not going to bring interest rates down no matter how much Trump stamps his feet. Which country do you think can suffer the pain for longer?
On top of all that, China doesn't have to worry about public opinion
Mick Taylor didn't eitherhttps://static.wikia.nocookie.net/monster-and-slashers/images/e/ee/Mick_Taylor111.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20210923224806
Monsieur merde de cheval
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Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Post Monsieur merde de cheval »

I see NiSk Tencsni and UKIP's video in EASTLEIGH  has been taken down from  YOO TOOB.

and so it goes on..and on .and on

You fuckers have no idea what's coming down the pipe....

 
Nutsin
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Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Post Nutsin »

Re-allocated funds in my 401k personal pension today, was heavily weighted in Bonds with a 50-50 split in foreign and US stocks.
Was down 3.84% YTD but still up 6.3% over 1 year.
moved into the Fidelity S&P 500 mutual fund mainly , NVIDIA, Google, Apple etc.

and the MIP CL 1 fund. T Bills, Fnma BofA. 

Countries are gonna fold to the new global market place. And so will China. Although I think Trump will make China feel the pain for a while before he makes a deal.

Not a get rich quick play but a nice Long term play. I am layering in, so I have saved some powder in case it drops further.

with savings I’m looking at the QQQ ETF, NVIDIA and GameStop looks interesting. Risk reward looks good. So do the Bollinger bands. Could still see volatility so layering in still. VIX looks like a good short at these lofty levels, VIX hasn’t been this high since COVID and isn’t far off from the Collapse of Lehman shock.

Nice to see Bill Ackman is getting crushed. Man is a weasel! Probably getting whacked with margin calls. Gold selling is probably because investors/traders have to sell to cover margin calls.

Remember the trend is your friend till the bend at the end.

The sky isn’t falling, stop listening to the scaremongering. Buy American! And don’t expect to buy the bottom. 
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