The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

[Come On You Irons]

There. Resident WHO political commentators and gurus can knock yourselves out in here and conduct your endless bickering. All other threads will be locked.

[goose]

Trump tax bill averts one debt crisis but makes future financial woes worse - https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump- ... 025-07-03/

[Nutsin]

The Big Beautiful Bill will be signed into law tomorrow at 5 PM Eastern by Trump.

No tax on tips, No tax on overtime No tax on social security. Secure borders, Golden Dome, new air traffic control system to make the airways safe for years to come etc:

What a contrast to the misery Bidenomics brought.

Another big win for the US Taxpayer and the US economy.

All this winning it’s too much!

[goose]

I prefer to look at these numbers

 

exactly - just getting hung up on a headline.
ignore the estimates and explain the YoY private sector jobs data.

no chance of any July rate cuts by the way so the interest on the debt will keep piling up until september.

President of the Atlanta Fed did a speech as well today:

Key Quotes

• Adjustment of prices to trade and other policies will not be short or simple; it could take a year or more.
• The labour market remains healthy; we do not see signs of serious deterioration.
• The US is likely going to see a period of higher inflation readings.
• Not the right time to shift monetary policy given uncertainty.
• The "wait and see" approach regarding interest rates remains appropriate, particularly given the economy’s resilience.
• There is a risk that high inflation could begin to influence consumer psychology.
• The Fed should consider making a commitment to stable inflation expectations more explicit in its framework.
• Businesses are delaying hiring and investments; expect demand to stagnate or decline if costs continue rising.
• Recent sanguine inflation readings are a result of businesses delaying price increases to get clarity on final tariff levels.

I don’t see anything about the sky falling in.

I don’t see anything about Stagflation

I don’t see any mention of all the Tariff money coming in

I don’t see anything about the Big Beautiful Bill passing into law.

I didn’t see anything about the capital spending boom.


It’s no secret the Fed members dislike Trump. The fact that the FED refuse to lower rates costing the USA more money in servicing the debt is on the Fed not Trump.

Trump is fighting for a fair market place for all countries to compete and trade in if the cost is a temporary rise in the super low inflation numbers Trump has generated with his policies then so be it. The payoff is worth the temporary minimal Uptick.

oil right now is at approx $65 per barrel when Trump was in office in his first term it was in the 30’s so look out that’s a lot of down side risk for the inflationists.


At the end of the day all your fear mongering will be a nothing burger and Trump will continue to stack the wins, the Dems will continue to collapse into desperate chaos and you’ll put a Cap Mong and will disappear from this forum.


Happy Days!

You’re right, he doesn’t mention the additional $650bn your about to add to the deficit.

He doesn’t mention the growth rates lagging behind last year either.

The 3 month deadline is up next week so another opportunity for Trump to crash the bond market.

Earnings season soon as well, so we will begin to find out who’s paying for tariffs. Consumer or US businesses?

[Nutsin]

The Germans won’t like this trend.

[Nutsin]

 

Again, do you actually read any of the data that comes out or just jump on the headline?
Jobs growth driven by government employment (state & local) which is largely teaching jobs for next school year. 
Have a look at the private sector employment numbers (weakest since October last year) and average hourly earnings.

Private sector jobs added was 74k vs 136k in June last year.

I prefer to look at these numbers

 

exactly - just getting hung up on a headline.
ignore the estimates and explain the YoY private sector jobs data.

no chance of any July rate cuts by the way so the interest on the debt will keep piling up until september.

President of the Atlanta Fed did a speech as well today:

Key Quotes

• Adjustment of prices to trade and other policies will not be short or simple; it could take a year or more.
• The labour market remains healthy; we do not see signs of serious deterioration.
• The US is likely going to see a period of higher inflation readings.
• Not the right time to shift monetary policy given uncertainty.
• The "wait and see" approach regarding interest rates remains appropriate, particularly given the economy’s resilience.
• There is a risk that high inflation could begin to influence consumer psychology.
• The Fed should consider making a commitment to stable inflation expectations more explicit in its framework.
• Businesses are delaying hiring and investments; expect demand to stagnate or decline if costs continue rising.
• Recent sanguine inflation readings are a result of businesses delaying price increases to get clarity on final tariff levels.

I don’t see anything about the sky falling in.

I don’t see anything about Stagflation

I don’t see any mention of all the Tariff money coming in

I don’t see anything about the Big Beautiful Bill passing into law.

I didn’t see anything about the capital spending boom.


It’s no secret the Fed members dislike Trump. The fact that the FED refuse to lower rates costing the USA more money in servicing the debt is on the Fed not Trump.

Trump is fighting for a fair market place for all countries to compete and trade in if the cost is a temporary rise in the super low inflation numbers Trump has generated with his policies then so be it. The payoff is worth the temporary minimal Uptick.

oil right now is at approx $65 per barrel when Trump was in office in his first term it was in the 30’s so look out that’s a lot of down side risk for the inflationists.


At the end of the day all your fear mongering will be a nothing burger and Trump will continue to stack the wins, the Dems will continue to collapse into desperate chaos and you’ll put a Cap Mong and will disappear from this forum.


Happy Days!

[goose]

Poor Goose

 

Again, do you actually read any of the data that comes out or just jump on the headline?
Jobs growth driven by government employment (state & local) which is largely teaching jobs for next school year. 
Have a look at the private sector employment numbers (weakest since October last year) and average hourly earnings.

Private sector jobs added was 74k vs 136k in June last year.

I prefer to look at these numbers

 

 

exactly - just getting hung up on a headline.
ignore the estimates and explain the YoY private sector jobs data.

no chance of any July rate cuts by the way so the interest on the debt will keep piling up until september.

President of the Atlanta Fed did a speech as well today:

Key Quotes

• Adjustment of prices to trade and other policies will not be short or simple; it could take a year or more.
• The labour market remains healthy; we do not see signs of serious deterioration.
• The US is likely going to see a period of higher inflation readings.
• Not the right time to shift monetary policy given uncertainty.
• The "wait and see" approach regarding interest rates remains appropriate, particularly given the economy’s resilience.
• There is a risk that high inflation could begin to influence consumer psychology.
• The Fed should consider making a commitment to stable inflation expectations more explicit in its framework.
• Businesses are delaying hiring and investments; expect demand to stagnate or decline if costs continue rising.
• Recent sanguine inflation readings are a result of businesses delaying price increases to get clarity on final tariff levels.

[Nutsin]

Poor Goose

 

Again, do you actually read any of the data that comes out or just jump on the headline?
Jobs growth driven by government employment (state & local) which is largely teaching jobs for next school year. 
Have a look at the private sector employment numbers (weakest since October last year) and average hourly earnings.

Private sector jobs added was 74k vs 136k in June last year.

I prefer to look at these numbers

[Far Cough UKunt]

[goose]

Poor Goose

 

 

Again, do you actually read any of the data that comes out or just jump on the headline?
Jobs growth driven by government employment (state & local) which is largely teaching jobs for next school year. 
Have a look at the private sector employment numbers (weakest since October last year) and average hourly earnings.

Private sector jobs added was 74k vs 136k in June last year.

[Nutsin]

[Nutsin]

Poor Goose

[XKhammer]

I have never voted Labour and never will,and not exactly a fan of Two Keir,but be careful what you wish for as if he goes anytime soon you could end up with 4 years of Raynor or another Corbyn type 

[only1billybonds]

Reeves is in so far over her head that it's frightening to think of the amount of damage she could do. Sadly,at the moment,the only alternative in the Labour Party is to go further left.
Liam Halligan has it right, no one on that front bench has a clue about running an economy.

[Fauxstralian]

Presume Reeves was bawling her eyes out as Sir Keith had told her she has to stay as Chancellor 
Can you imagine the reaction if a male politician was seen WEEPING in the front row of the government benches?

[Massive Attack]

14% approval rating.



 

That means statistically most of his family even think he’s a useless cսnt.

His missus certainly thinks that going by recent alleged revelations..

[Jaan Kenbrovin]

14% approval rating.


 

That means statistically most of his family even think he’s a useless cսnt.

[Lee Trundle]

Making Reeve's cry.
14% approval rating.
Khan and Burnham controlling the power.

Two Tier on borrowed time?

[One Sunny Day]

Looks like she's been charged now. For all those playing the "whatabout" card, Labour, Conservatives, Lib Dems, would have at least suspended her from their party, by now. Can't find a dickens about Reform taking any action?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2llkjy732o

[Massive Attack]

The People are Revolting...


https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1EuXhpef5z/

 

The Great British public have had enough and am seeing more and more of this. 



*Actually this isn't so much about a Political issue 2nd thoughts but should probably have it's own thread where Citizens taking matters in to their own hands when dealing with those that hate our Country? Although Political decisions have led to things like this.

[goose]

Yes, absolutely, the price of petrol does have an impact on the cost of goods, that’s a fact!

I don’t think they’re all lying, I do think many are clueless and there are the once propagandists and opportunists.

We will see a temporary uptick nothing significant, but once the agreements are in place we will see a much more competitive market that will help keep prices in check. 

But the sky won’t fall and we won’t have to concern ourselves about Stagflation.

Can’t wait for you to pull a Cap Mong and disappear once the US economy takes off with the passing of the big beautiful bill, the new trade agreements and the reduction in illegal immigrant handouts.

5% move in the price of fuel would move the cost price by 0.1%. Nowhere near covering the tariff.

Im glad you’re so happy about adding $650bn to the deficit every year.

what happened to 90 deals in 90 days btw? Or is Trump gonna again?

For the sake of argument let’s assume your numbers are accurate.
WTI crude was as high as $110 per barrel under Biden as much as $80 per Barrell on Jan 13th 2025. Today it’s $65 per Barrell. That’s quite a bit more than a 5% move.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2516/wti-cr ... aily-chart


90 days isn’t up yet but even if it’s extended who cares? As long as we get a fair trade deal in place.

Personally I love that we have a President with the balls to tackle the big issues. About time someone stood up to China.

Price in January is irrelevant. Pre “liberation day” you’re talking 10% movement which won’t even break 0.2% cost price movement. 

Every major company in the US has told you the cost impact of tariffs, from Apple to Walmart to Target to Nike to Ford to Volvo to Delta airlines to Qualcomm to Proctor & Gamble to Best Buys to Macy’s……. All have downgraded profits guidance or refused to give guidance because of tariffs.

You have a president who has caused uncertainty and is desperate to increase your deficit by $650bn every year.

[Nutsin]

lol you think the petrol price of a truck has any material impact on the cost of goods? You keep reaching though, don’t stop.

So you think everybody is lying about prices going up because of tariffs and they’re just ripping you off?  Honestly they could call you up and walk you through it and you’d still refuse to listen.

enjoy the additional $650bn you’re adding to the deficit.

Yes, absolutely, the price of petrol does have an impact on the cost of goods, that’s a fact!

I don’t think they’re all lying, I do think many are clueless and there are the once propagandists and opportunists.

We will see a temporary uptick nothing significant, but once the agreements are in place we will see a much more competitive market that will help keep prices in check. 

But the sky won’t fall and we won’t have to concern ourselves about Stagflation.

Can’t wait for you to pull a Cap Mong and disappear once the US economy takes off with the passing of the big beautiful bill, the new trade agreements and the reduction in illegal immigrant handouts.

5% move in the price of fuel would move the cost price by 0.1%. Nowhere near covering the tariff.

Im glad you’re so happy about adding $650bn to the deficit every year.

what happened to 90 deals in 90 days btw? Or is Trump gonna again?

For the sake of argument let’s assume your numbers are accurate.
WTI crude was as high as $110 per barrel under Biden as much as $80 per Barrell on Jan 13th 2025. Today it’s $65 per Barrell. That’s quite a bit more than a 5% move.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2516/wti-cr ... aily-chart


90 days isn’t up yet but even if it’s extended who cares? As long as we get a fair trade deal in place.

Personally I love that we have a President with the balls to tackle the big issues. About time someone stood up to China.

[goose]

Listen to the CEO’s who wanna justify price hikes? Good one.

You do realize there are plenty of alternatives to Walmart and Target right? They’re not the only games in town.

US is a big country, we’re not talking UK here. To get these products from the ports to the store requires big rigs driving long distances the cost of Gasoline is a big factor in the cost of food. Lower oil prices absolutely affects the costs of goods. Once again you show your ignorance. Oil just hit a 4 year low.

Senate just passed the big beautiful bill, now it goes back to the house for a vote on the adjustments before it’s passed, which will happen pretty sharpish. Another big win for tax payers and a secure border and Trump of course.

Canada folded on their Digital tax of course. 

Aligator Alcitraz is a big win for the fight on crime.

So many wins in such a short period of time, gotta love how Trump is turning everything around one policy at a time. America is making a comeback and we will all be better for it.


MAGA!

lol you think the petrol price of a truck has any material impact on the cost of goods? You keep reaching though, don’t stop.

So you think everybody is lying about prices going up because of tariffs and they’re just ripping you off?  Honestly they could call you up and walk you through it and you’d still refuse to listen.

enjoy the additional $650bn you’re adding to the deficit.

Yes, absolutely, the price of petrol does have an impact on the cost of goods, that’s a fact!

I don’t think they’re all lying, I do think many are clueless and there are the once propagandists and opportunists.

We will see a temporary uptick nothing significant, but once the agreements are in place we will see a much more competitive market that will help keep prices in check. 

But the sky won’t fall and we won’t have to concern ourselves about Stagflation.

Can’t wait for you to pull a Cap Mong and disappear once the US economy takes off with the passing of the big beautiful bill, the new trade agreements and the reduction in illegal immigrant handouts.

5% move in the price of fuel would move the cost price by 0.1%. Nowhere near covering the tariff.

Im glad you’re so happy about adding $650bn to the deficit every year.

what happened to 90 deals in 90 days btw? Or is Trump gonna again?

[Nutsin]

You should probably tell the CEOs of Nike & Adidas who both said tariffs would mean price increases.

There’s no chance any energy savings will cover the increase in direct materials. Vast majority of products sold the raw materials are by far the biggest cost (cars, electronics, chemicals, consumer goods).

Walmart, Target, Nike, Adidas, all the car producers and the FED have said Q2 into Q3 this year you’ll start to see inflation hit the consumer. Input prices are up and that will flow through. You’ve seen inflation tick up in the last couple of months, groceries and electronics have already started to go up in price.

So either US companies pay, or the consumer pays. Take your pick.

Listen to the CEO’s who wanna justify price hikes? Good one.

You do realize there are plenty of alternatives to Walmart and Target right? They’re not the only games in town.

US is a big country, we’re not talking UK here. To get these products from the ports to the store requires big rigs driving long distances the cost of Gasoline is a big factor in the cost of food. Lower oil prices absolutely affects the costs of goods. Once again you show your ignorance. Oil just hit a 4 year low.

Senate just passed the big beautiful bill, now it goes back to the house for a vote on the adjustments before it’s passed, which will happen pretty sharpish. Another big win for tax payers and a secure border and Trump of course.

Canada folded on their Digital tax of course. 

Aligator Alcitraz is a big win for the fight on crime.

So many wins in such a short period of time, gotta love how Trump is turning everything around one policy at a time. America is making a comeback and we will all be better for it.


MAGA!

lol you think the petrol price of a truck has any material impact on the cost of goods? You keep reaching though, don’t stop.

So you think everybody is lying about prices going up because of tariffs and they’re just ripping you off?  Honestly they could call you up and walk you through it and you’d still refuse to listen.

enjoy the additional $650bn you’re adding to the deficit.

Yes, absolutely, the price of petrol does have an impact on the cost of goods, that’s a fact!

I don’t think they’re all lying, I do think many are clueless and there are the once propagandists and opportunists.

We will see a temporary uptick nothing significant, but once the agreements are in place we will see a much more competitive market that will help keep prices in check. 

But the sky won’t fall and we won’t have to concern ourselves about Stagflation.

Can’t wait for you to pull a Cap Mong and disappear once the US economy takes off with the passing of the big beautiful bill, the new trade agreements and the reduction in illegal immigrant handouts.

[goose]

Not the consumer, so far the manufacturers are paying it, now remember energy costs are way down so people are still better off than they were by a lot. Admit it you were expecting a much bigger increase in the CPI numbers. 


You need to familiarize yourself with yourself with Macro economics. Maybe then you’ll stop majoring in minors.

PS the price of Nike shoes has fuck all to do with Fed monetary policy or Gov’t fiscal policy.

You should probably tell the CEOs of Nike & Adidas who both said tariffs would mean price increases.

There’s no chance any energy savings will cover the increase in direct materials. Vast majority of products sold the raw materials are by far the biggest cost (cars, electronics, chemicals, consumer goods).

Walmart, Target, Nike, Adidas, all the car producers and the FED have said Q2 into Q3 this year you’ll start to see inflation hit the consumer. Input prices are up and that will flow through. You’ve seen inflation tick up in the last couple of months, groceries and electronics have already started to go up in price.

So either US companies pay, or the consumer pays. Take your pick.

Listen to the CEO’s who wanna justify price hikes? Good one.

You do realize there are plenty of alternatives to Walmart and Target right? They’re not the only games in town.

US is a big country, we’re not talking UK here. To get these products from the ports to the store requires big rigs driving long distances the cost of Gasoline is a big factor in the cost of food. Lower oil prices absolutely affects the costs of goods. Once again you show your ignorance. Oil just hit a 4 year low.

Senate just passed the big beautiful bill, now it goes back to the house for a vote on the adjustments before it’s passed, which will happen pretty sharpish. Another big win for tax payers and a secure border and Trump of course.

Canada folded on their Digital tax of course. 

Aligator Alcitraz is a big win for the fight on crime.

So many wins in such a short period of time, gotta love how Trump is turning everything around one policy at a time. America is making a comeback and we will all be better for it.


MAGA!

lol you think the petrol price of a truck has any material impact on the cost of goods? You keep reaching though, don’t stop.

So you think everybody is lying about prices going up because of tariffs and they’re just ripping you off?  Honestly they could call you up and walk you through it and you’d still refuse to listen.

enjoy the additional $650bn you’re adding to the deficit.

[Nutsin]

Who do you think is paying that money?

Not the consumer, so far the manufacturers are paying it, now remember energy costs are way down so people are still better off than they were by a lot. Admit it you were expecting a much bigger increase in the CPI numbers. 


You need to familiarize yourself with yourself with Macro economics. Maybe then you’ll stop majoring in minors.

PS the price of Nike shoes has fuck all to do with Fed monetary policy or Gov’t fiscal policy.

You should probably tell the CEOs of Nike & Adidas who both said tariffs would mean price increases.

There’s no chance any energy savings will cover the increase in direct materials. Vast majority of products sold the raw materials are by far the biggest cost (cars, electronics, chemicals, consumer goods).

Walmart, Target, Nike, Adidas, all the car producers and the FED have said Q2 into Q3 this year you’ll start to see inflation hit the consumer. Input prices are up and that will flow through. You’ve seen inflation tick up in the last couple of months, groceries and electronics have already started to go up in price.

So either US companies pay, or the consumer pays. Take your pick.

Listen to the CEO’s who wanna justify price hikes? Good one.

You do realize there are plenty of alternatives to Walmart and Target right? They’re not the only games in town.

US is a big country, we’re not talking UK here. To get these products from the ports to the store requires big rigs driving long distances the cost of Gasoline is a big factor in the cost of food. Lower oil prices absolutely affects the costs of goods. Once again you show your ignorance. Oil just hit a 4 year low.

Senate just passed the big beautiful bill, now it goes back to the house for a vote on the adjustments before it’s passed, which will happen pretty sharpish. Another big win for tax payers and a secure border and Trump of course.

Canada folded on their Digital tax of course. 

Aligator Alcitraz is a big win for the fight on crime.

So many wins in such a short period of time, gotta love how Trump is turning everything around one policy at a time. America is making a comeback and we will all be better for it.


MAGA!